Site: SouthernCaliforniaWeatherForce.com has issued a Tornado Watch effective Overnight tonight into Thursday noon …
Date: 1/18/17 at 8:15am PT
Forecast: Upper dynamics will move into the Vandenberg area later tonight .. into the VT/LA/OC/SD/IE areas on Thursday morning, early. Latest upper air profiles suggests to me that strong upper divergence with a wide diving trough-base will be the lifting source we will need for convective development. The rain will fall well ahead of the supercells expected, which should be at the very end of the front. Shear profiles indicated lightning will be strong.
At the surface; expecting a strong southeasterly surface flow across the watch area overnight tonight into Thursday morning. This southeast flow will work with a west to east flow in the mid-levels and produce the needed low level spin in the atmosphere for rising tornado probabilities. In addition to the tornado risk, some hail , lightning, and wind gusts over 50+ mph will be possible with this.
The system will remain severe through the Inland Empire areas … with a dragging front of broken low-topped supercells and gusty winds into Santa Clarita Valley and DOwntown San Diego … The center of the tornado risk will be along the coast and 10 miles inland …
10 mile rule: These alerts issued on this site means that within your zone and 10 miles from you will see the event forecast for. You may or may not see the event but it means you are in the zone or 10 miles from where someone will.
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