A deluge is going on across parts of Southern California today and another impulse comes in Tuesday and then another Wednesday into Thursday. The next impulses will have stronger severe weather dynamics and thus I will treat the Tornado Watch like any other watch alert and keep it active, extending it till later Thursday. Read on for details …
This is the second impulse hitting and we have two more left. The Tornado Watch I issued has been extended till later Thursday for the next two stronger impulses. The watch will be for Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo County. Between now and later Thursday there is no way that we will end this storm event without having tornadoes due to the orientation of all the shortwave upper level lows along with strong low level dynamics.
A strongly negative-tilted shortwave low pressure system that is Major Pacific Storm Trump (Category 6) is located west of Central California. This wide trough base is allowing for an area of large upper ascent (divergence) aloft. This divergence will overspread the area later this morning and into the afternoon. Instability profiles with the daytime heating will be enough to produce thunderstorms. SCWF Tornado Model is indicating these storms to produce tornadoes.
At the surface … A surface low west of Central California is bringing in very strong southeasterly winds across the Tornado Watch zone. . These winds will strengthen as the line of thunderstorms and embedded supercells moves through. With the instability and this southeasterly component atop a jet stream from southwest to northeast creating shear, supercells containing tornadoes are going to be possible. The most likely area will be from Ventura County westward through Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo County, with elevated values in the LA coast/basin zones as well, as far southeast as Huntington Beach/Costa Mesa … but since all of OC is close enough to the area of upper divergence and thunderstorm risks.. I will issue it for you as well.
This is a LONG DURATION tornado watch, which means it will last until later Thursday with each impulse that comes in this week.
In addition to the tornado risk, damaging winds and some hail will be likely along with torrential downpours that can lead to flooding …
A line of convection is forming this afternoon and is visible offshore right now just west of Catalina as of 11:30am. This will develop further and move inland through LA/OC/San Diego and the Inland Empire through this evening. The Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect in those areas as instability develops.
FROM PREVIOUS ARTICLE;
My Winter Storm Warning is also in effect for the following mountain zones; As stated in the previous article (Click Here), the second impulse with Major Pacific Storm Trump will hit over the day on Monday (Today). Heavy snow is in the forecast for the Kern County Mountains above 4,500 FT, impacting the Gorman Pass as well. Furthermore across the LA/San Bernardino Mountains we could see 1-3 inches of snow at 5000 FT, a dusting at the Cajon Summit, and 6-12 inches above 6,000 FT, including Big Bear and the Rim. Idy/Pinecove you have 3-6″ possible but more likely on the lower end of that… still you’ll be included in the warning. Another impulse hits on Tuesday and more hit throughout the week. Snow levels will rise to over 7,000 FT by mid-week so some communities will see melting snow and mostly rain falling. Premium members can check the snow model in the link below –
DESERTS: There is enough deep-layer moisture to bring rainfall to ALL desert locations of Southern California. No one should be left out of the precipitation due to the deep-layer moisture.
The next impulse arrives on Tuesday, followed by yet another near Thursday. Both of the next impulses will target the Burn areas, however the most dangerous being the Ventura, Los Angeles, and Santa Barbara County zones on all accounts like my earlier forecasts said days ago. Those were always the most troublesome spots.
We dry-out through the end week into the weekend but between January 21st and 23rd an inside slider moves in and this would drop the night-time temperatures once again for a brief period of time. No doubt freeze warnings and frost advisories will be needed then.
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