Super El Nino Advisory: Event Ties Record; 2.3 and Rising; Confidence Remains High



Southern California Weather Force has upgraded the Super El Nino Watch to a Super El Nino Advisory as Super El Nino status has been held for over a month.  This is one step away from the Super El Nino Warning and this El Nino has tied the record for the 1997-1998 Super El Nino.

Since August 10, 2015 a value of 2.0 has been kept.  This month long 2.0 or higher value has changed our Super El Nino Watch to Super El Nino Advisory.  Another month will set it to Super El Nino Warning.   El Nino’s 2.3c above average value is on par to the 1997 El Nino, however what is interesting is that 1997 did not peak till then October, November, December average period … we are seeing a higher value than what was during the 1997-1998 El Nino at this time.

The hybrid storm that merged with Former Hurricane Linda is part of this system.  The atmosphere has a longwave trough pattern in the Pacific Ocean right now west of Oregon, meaning all of the west coast is seeing precipitation with it.  No ridging has been seen, nor is being seen west of Oregon and for this time of year a longwave trough is very rare … indicating that the Super El Nino factors are in place in our region of the world.

This hybrid storm will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the San Luis Obispo / Kern areas today … with a dragging front through the rest of the forecast area this evening, overnight, and into Tuesday.  Pressure levels in the tops of the clouds indicates that a less chance of thunderstorms will exist south of Santa Barbara and Kern County.

Super El Ninos also have more tornadoes and severe thunderstorms along major storm fronts.  This year, the likelihood of such will be high.  Southern California does see tornadoes in the coast/basin/valley zones … just no one is looking for them.  This year it is our hope that forecasts at Southern California Weather Force will enable people to be on the lookout and report these tornadoes that form.

The locations this will be would be the Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego Coastal and Valley/Basin areas.  Inland Empire may see a risk as well.  San Luis Obispo would see a lower but sustainable risk.  Some may be spotted in the High Desert regions … none will be spotted in the Coachella Valley … and a risk will maintain for the Colorado River Valley areas.  Why there?  The storms would have stronger southerly flow and this flow ahead of stronger fronts would up the instability factors in those areas and daytime heating of the desert and produce the risk of supercells containing the risk of tornadoes … As seen before in previous years, especially near Blythe.

Super El Nino is now in advisory level … The Southern California Weather Force official 2015-2016 Pacific Storm Names will be released soon … Stay tuned …

One more thing … The heat is on the rise after this passes, with this weekend having near or at heat advisory level heat inland.

Comments are closed.