There is a group of thunderstorms west of Mexico that is becoming more organized, which will become Hurricane Rosa by Thursday. The associated system will weaken as it moves into the region, however the track is turning it directly toward the Southwestern United States so read on for details.
The time-frame for this will be the first week of October. As stated in the pre-October 2018 forecast article posted a week ago (9/18/2018) the month would have rainfall events, which could add up to normal or even above normal in some areas.
The current track of what will be Hurricane Rosa is into the Southwestern United States during the first week of October, but how far west can it reach? Typically these systems are driven by the changing jet stream as fall moves along and sucked up into the country. A shield of dry southwest flow will be present somewhere in California, with a possibly of being west of Los Angeles. The member section here at Southern California Weather Force is updating frequently with the longer range pattern talked about in here. There.. you’ll see % of rainfall, dry, and temperature averages. A trend will be established for all of it in a few days and it is what members typically have used to get a good idea what confidence level a pattern is in. Not a member? Check it out …
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Output numbers on my models clearly do show this into the USA and the best spot would have to be closer to San Diego, Inland Empire, Imperial County, and the Riverside Deserts if talking about my forecast area. Outside the forecast area however would be Phoenix, Arizona that would have to watch this as well. Looks like wherever this does hit will have major flooding problems.
This will not be considered a Southern California Weather Force Pacific Storm Name since it will already have Rosa as the name of the dying Hurricane and it does not fit the criteria for named Pacific Storms from me. The criteria must fit with a front that makes it from the west coast of Southern California all the way through the rest of the region eastwards and/or a cold core low that moves over the region and gives at least half of the area rainfall.
Such cutoff cold cores are possible toward the second week of the month.
The final 2018-2019 outlook will be given just before Halloween as the developing El Nino is still being monitored. This will come in video form at the finally finished office.
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