The official SCWF December 2018 forecast called for a break in activity for the mid-month followed by systems around Christmas to the end of the month. Since that was a long range and confidence is rising for this to happen, it will yet again be dubbed a Martin Storm Pattern. Read on for details …
The pattern has been dull for the most part, with only some glancing blows for areas west of Kern and Ventura County over the last several days. Some areas around San Luis Obispo County did receive appreciable rainfall totals .. however in Los Angeles south and eastward into the more populated zones nothing fell. This will come to an end as the lull gives way to yet another storm pattern, this one .. could be a cold/arctic style pattern with much lower snow levels than we have seen this season, much less maybe even over the last several years.
The first system is scheduled for sometime around Christmas. There is a chance this is a hybrid inside slider, which means more rain for Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Kern County than say areas like Ventura, which usually blocks the northwest flow. Areas around the Inland Empire and San Diego could also be favored with the flow out of the ocean. This system could be a colder one so mountain snow is likely… with the most happening of course in the Kern County Mountains, including the Gorman Pass areas. Travels during this time-frame should be met with caution and continue to monitor any later updates.
Another system behind the first one will hit after Christmas and before New Years. This again has lower snow levels. The track of this one is being carefully watched because if the surface low does go southwest and south of us.. the snow levels will bottom out at very low elevations. There is no guarantee to this.. but the pattern does favor it more than not. Exact locations of snowfall is unknown at this time, but it could easily be the desert zones too.
Regardless of the pattern, between Christmas and New Years will be abnormally cold across the Southland.. making it feel more like Christmas than previous years have given.
The preliminary January 2019 forecast looks interesting with numerous very large storm systems expected throughout the month. This is when El Nino starts to really take hold.
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