FIRST LOOK: Outside Slider System from Alaska To Bring Rain, Thunderstorm, Gusty Wind, and Mountain Snow Dynamics To Various Parts of Southern California by Sunday


This is your official first look for the diving outside slider system that will affect the weather across Southern California on your Sunday, affecting the NASCAR Autoclub 400 race, with offshore Santa Ana Winds by Monday, and an even stronger Santa Ana Wind Event by Mid-Week so for your area’s details or focus, read on…

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Wow that was a lot to intro was it not?  Let’s get one thing out of the way first.  Down in San Diego County I would like to highlight something.  Several big rigs were turned over on Interstate 8 through the mountain pass areas over there.  Of course many probably did not know that was coming and it infuriates me.  I issued a Santa Ana Wind Advisory for that area with my exclusive wind gust intensity model that helps truckers out.  Click here to read that alert.  This was issued ahead of time and the model within clearly outlined that with this last event the Cajon Pass would not be in danger, but the only area of focus for flipped over trucks would be San Diego County, exactly where those hit.   Did you know that your local government weather service did NOT issue a High Wind Warning until 2am this morning?  That my friends is called bad timing, zero lead-time, and is the reason Southern California Weather Force will REMAIN the leader in lead-time in the micro-climate alert system.  Even further, my micro-climate group San Diego Mountain Weather Alerts (SCWF) had a reminder of the winds (Click here to see) the evening before.  There was zero reason ones that are SUPPOSE to be official can miss notifying such an event in lead-time.  NWS/NOAA is NOT official here and I stress that you ALWAYS check Southern California Weather Force for lead-time and accuracy because it has and will continue to be the number one service, whether you donate, view on the FB page/groups, get the premium alert system app on IOS/Android … Period …

Now for the forecast.  Your forecast has what is called here at SCWF an outside slider system.  The outside slider system is a system that is somewhat moisture starved, but has a cold core for instability, and has the center missing offshore.  An inside slider is when the center of a system misses to our north over Las Vegas and dives into Arizona.  This system will bring a snow level of around 5,000 FT for the most part on Sunday.  The snow level will lower on Sunday evening/night to 4,000 FT.  The onshore flow on Sunday will meet the offshore flow at the same time and this is where NASCAR Autoclub 400 has my concern.  The track is in Fontana, which is south of the mountains.  This zone, just like San Fernando and Yucaipa, is in the up-slope zone for storm systems like this.  I am still maintaining rain developing on and off through the day and as the system gains some strength, dynamics only getting worse as the evening goes along.  I know the track has lights but IF a cell moves over for a delay and it keeps doing this, calculations to race will be later at night, well after sunset.  I am unsure of their policies but if these delays happen, night racing is possible if the front can sag south on time.

Given the storm track and flow, I’ll need a Winter Weather Advisory alert of some kind for the Los Angeles and San Bernardino Mountains.  With a snow level of 4,000 FT, maybe even the Riverside/San Diego Mountains as well.  The Sna Bernardino Mountains will win at the most snow with this system.  There is some concern of a bit of snow at the top of the Cajon Pass and maybe even some flurry fun in some High Desert areas on Sunday evening/night into Monday morning so an overnight event.

I have already gone ahead and issued the Special Marine Statement for the bight (ocean and island) zones of Southern California (Click here to read) – It reads; A Pacific Storm will move over the area this weekend.  The high waves and gusty winds of 35-50 mph out of the west will impact the Channel Islands, waters/coast of Santa Barbara/San Luis Obispo County by Saturday, spreading east to Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego County, including Catalina and San Clemente Islands by Sunday.

These conditions are dangerous and small crafts are urged to not go out during this period, especially on Sunday.

SCWF Lightning Prediction Model indicates isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the region on your Sunday so be cautious.  Waves will range from 9-12 for SBA/SLO County and 6-9 for Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego County’s southwest/west facing beaches. and over 20 FT out in the deeper island region at the center of the bight.

The SCWF lightning prediction model below is subject to change before the system hits but it will give you an idea of the peppered storm activity expected on Sunday (yellow spots).  Yellow areas within 0-15 miles of them is to know if you are close to a thunderstorm zone pegged by this model.  Just by looking at this, one can see we will have isolated hit and miss thunderstorms, even over the populated land areas.  Don’t use location right now on this model, just know it is detecting strikes in our forecast area.  It’ll be zoned down as we near Sunday.

After this, offshore flow grips by Monday with a break on Tuesday and by mid-next week we are looking at possibly a strong Santa Ana Wind Event that will affect travel for truckers so stay tuned.

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