January 24, 2021 at 3:21 pm

FINAL FORECAST: Major Pacific Storm DAIMYO impacts Southern California Starting Tonight, Goes Through Monday; Complete Model Image Suite


Major Pacific Storm DAIMYO has been upgraded to a category four out of six system in certain areas due to the combination of thunderstorms, heavy rain or snow, and very gusty winds behind the front that will bring trees or power poles down in spots.  This is the final forecast in the series of storms in the Martin Storm Pattern, which means the official alerts will not change, and as you know, we live in a micro-climate land.  ALL of my images inside here show what is expected for who and wherein precise form.  San Diego County you will see the brunt of this system with the best thunderstorm and damaging wind risks with the issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch.  Ventura proper you will see the least of this system, more of a light rain risk and wind event than anything else.  Snow-wise, Big Bear you will not do as good as Tehachapi.  Gorman Pass will close, and Cajon Pass will have a chance at closing.  So, for details into the heart of this system, including the images, read on …

First of all, the system is the type where it will have numerous dynamics in different areas and micro-climates.  Your area is in an image row below this novel of writing, so don’t skip them.  Category four conditions will be mainly for San Diego’s forecast area, stretching into Mexico along the coast.  What I am seeing is the frontal zone will be broken apart until it reaches around Long Beach sometime around the 10-11 pm hour tonight, zipping south and east from there to the IE/SD areas.  This is when the interaction with low-level wind against the mountains to the north takes hold and orographic lifting builds the clouds up.  As the upper jet works in, the heaviest rainfall in the metros will be Orange County east to the Inland Empire and south especially into San Diego County.

Southern California Weather Force has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Western San Diego County with this system.  Strong winds, lightning, torrential downpours will be likely with the front.  It is quite rare for San Diego County to see the most, however, due to the unique low-level flow around Point Conception (Vandenberg Air Force Base area), the west to east flow maintains to focus on that area.  This also brings heavy snow to the Kern County Mountains in such a west-northwest flow so expecting heavy snowfall there with my Winter Storm Warning.  The unfavorable flow will keep snowfall totals from being ‘too high’ in our local mountains, but you should easily see snow with this system, as will you in the High Desert.  The snow-level also is low enough for the flakes to fly in Las Vegas.  If you are traveling to or from Vegas, prepare for the mountain elevation pass between the CA/NV border and Baker to make you stuck and I’m hoping they do close it because 6-12 inches of snow will fall on that pass with this system.

On Monday, behind the front, the gusty winds will active what the wind model below shows.  This is when areas that had heavy rain overnight can have downed trees or power-lines all due to the saturated ground.  I do expect a number of downed tree/pole reports on Monday.  In any-case, dry air in the upper levels on Monday will only keep hit and miss showers/storms in the metros.  The main deluge is the overnight event between that 10 pm and 4 am hour through the aforementioned areas.

MEDIUM RANGE: The MAIN flooding event for the metros, including SLO/SBA/VT/OC/LA County will be later Thursday into Friday.  This will be EDGAR, the next name on the list.. and should pack a punch should it remain on track.  Those of you in Santa Barbara Couty especially need to pay attention to future forecasts.

LONG RANGE:  Teleconnections suggests that the storm window will remain open to more storms during the first week of February.  Will continue to monitor.

I do not know why I am writing a novel on this system because of the SCWF model image suite that I will post below so you can see your zone region covered.  Keep in mind that these are the most comprehensive images around.  They are touchy to the micro-climate and in the rain and flood risk model, you will only see the expected risk or amount.  Those models actually cancel out the snow so before you saw flood risks covering the mountains.  The new models remove that and make it easier to know what to expect.

SCWF Premium Members:  Click here for your model suite member section where you can control and zoom into anywhere covered.  Keep in mind, these are updated hours before social media.  The rest of the viewers read on and view below on what’s offered for Major Pacific Storm DAIMYO

I control 10 counties in Southern California so there is a lot to say for various areas. The best I can do is let the images below speak for themselves. They are separated into six rows of six. Four zones that I control. If you are in Southern California, you are in one of these. Each is identical so zone 1 is the same on all the rows and so on.  Image 5 is Cajon Pass, and Image 6 is Kern Mountains including Gorman for you travelers.  Here is the key to the rows below.  They are extremely detailed.

Row 1 – Alert Zones
Row 2 – Events Expected by Micro-Climate
Row 3 – Flood Risk
Row 4 – Rain Risk
Row 5 – Snow Risk
Row 6 – Wind Risk

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Row 1 – Alert Zones

Row 2 – Events Expected by Micro-Climate

Row 3 – Flood Risk

Row 4 – Rain Risk

Row 5 – Snow Risk

Row 6 – Wind Risk

Martin Wind Gust Intensity Scale –

8. Extensive widespread damage.
7. Trees are broken or uprooted, building damage is considerable. – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over CERTAIN.
6. SOME Trees are broken or uprooted, building damage is possible. – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Likely, Do NOT recommend Traveling in this zone
5. Slight damage occurs to buildings, shingles are blown off of roofs. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA – High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Possible if weight is not corrected.
4. Twigs and small branches are broken from trees, walking is difficult.
3. Large trees sway, becoming difficult to walk. POWER SHUTDOWN THRESHOLD WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA

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