On June 17, 2021, I made the most ambitious forecast call I’ve ever made, and that was for overnight thunderstorms in the region, excluding San Diego eastward and more towards an advisory box, I outlined. 12 hours later, thunderstorms erupted through the Northern Inland Empire, Mountains, SCV, Bakersfield, and most of the High Desert so read on for details …
Before I begin, the article for that call you can see by clicking here.
A few days before, I noticed Northern Arizona would have a type of thunderstorm that would produce a gravity wave. I have been building a model for those as currently NOAA does not predict them nor knows how to. So why not, I always do their job for them, right? A gravity wave did propagate from thunderstorms over Flagstaff at 3 pm on June 17th, and it was heading straight for Southern California. I decided to fire off my weather advisory product. It is one below a thunderstorm watch, which this event should have been, but nevertheless, a weather advisory is issued for showers OR thunderstorms and/or an event I’m experimenting on or unsure if I would make the right call. I made the box within the advisory areas. The box is where I thought most of the activity would hit based on my modeling of the gravity wave.
Nervously, I pressed the email alert system locations and sent it off to my subscribers and posted it to all my social media accounts … and I do mean a nervous part of me did not want to send it because ALL forecasts had ZERO percent chance of it happening… news channels, apps, NOAA, everyone was with zero percent chance … so I would be the only one to post such. People would look at their phones and be like… huh??!! “My app doesn’t say that!?!” Well, I guess you don’t know me …
Okay, I admit it I’m a time traveler. I come here from the year 2400 to help out with earthquakes and weather…
After midnight the first signs of the wave entered through the CO River Valley and slowly unzipped the atmosphere from east to west. The image you see in this article is the lightning strike density for overnight last night into some of today. The box embedded is the box I put for the event. It fit perfectly in a way that surprised even me. Reports started coming in all over the boxed area with lightning, some of the storms had strong winds due to how dry the low levels were. I even hosted a live chat on my personal FB profile to close friends and they were saying the storms have arrived. I went outside like Doc Brown on Back To The Future part 1 and heard the thunder as he did … and whispered like he … “The storm…” –
Anyhow that is just what I wanted to let everyone know … just to write that experience and it probably was my best forecast to date next to predicting the Lake Elsinore and Wildomar snowstorm many years back with my Snow Advisory when I even drove up to McVicker to see if it would happen, and I got stuck for a few hours in a lot of snow.
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So what is next? A cool-down coming up and then we have an active July for the Arizona Monsoon, which leaks to our area like we just saw … I won’t spoil the surprise for this Summer so you just have to keep following me here at Southern California Weather Force – But click here for the hint … and get in on my email alert system if you ever want to know rare events that will be coming because relying on social media to show you sometimes does not work – info below –
GRAVITY WAVE: A gravity wave is when a strong thunderstorm punches through the stratosphere quickly, resulting in waves of pressure propagating outward from it. Think of it like a rock in a pond, but backward.
Oh and to the nice woman that asked me if she needed to give her dogs medication because they get scared during a thunderstorm… I hope this forecast did help you out as you look to have been hit hard with the storms.
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