Pacific Storm Ingrid was initial started as a category three system but now has the title Major as she has crossed into the category four threshold for flooding. However, recent calculations have pushed the rainfall amounts up in a short period of time, bringing a flood danger to all burn areas. If you live near them, you should consider evacuating if a notice is given. The system peaks Thursday night into Friday so read on for details and see the rain forecast …
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The mountain/desert regions will have the gustier winds due to mountain wave activity. In fact, this evening, look for those lenticular clouds downrange of the mountains in the desert areas and even the Kern Valley zones as Mt. Pinos would provide the dynamics there for them. Should be a good evening to get some great pictures, so you photographers enjoy that one.
A warm system that is the start of the second half of the Martin Storm Pattern of December 2021 will move into the region on Thursday. We should see rainfall starting in SLO/Santa Barbara as early as later today and tonight, and spreading eastward through the morning through Ventura/Los Angeles County and eventually to the Yucaipa zones as the day progresses. This is upslope activity ahead of the main front.
With this, the Fog Advisory was issued for parts of VT/LA/Santa Barbara Counties, near the coast mostly … This is for Thursday morning before the system hits. Calmer winds + increasing surface humidity will make for dense fog in those areas.
The main event is Thursday night into Christmas Eve. The snow-level will be over 8,500 FT with this system so this is why the Flood Watch yesterday is also for all mountain regions, minus Kern County.
We also have deeper-layer moisture so these will get over the local mountain areas into the deserts more-so than most storms do.
The SCWF Flood Watches in place now will turn to Flood Warnings and Advisories once the final forecast article is given, which is scheduled for Thursday around this same time.
Christmas looks OK, but upslope activity in the metros can bring on and off showers, clearing by Sunday. But, not before having a front move through overnight on Christmas at a fast-pace that can reinforce the colder air and bring the snow-level to bear 4,000 FT so we could get some light snow accumulations at that level, mostly the Kern County Mountains … We then get a bit of a break until toward the end of next week.
LONG RANGE: Next week however, especially closer to end month and beginning January, the Hawaiian ridge finally shoves back eastward and this would arc the polar jet into the region. It is very possible this is when the arctic air mass finally comes down into Southern California and gives us the coldest/wettest storm of the season thus far that I’ve been waiting for on the prediction it had to happen sometime this month… but I’ll take 2-3 days error into January as well… just as long as it happens.
I do calculate anywhere from 2.75 to 4.00″ of additional rainfall in Downtown Los Angeles between this week and end month. We should end the month at between 5-7″ of rainfall, which is well and way above average, as the December 2021 SCWF Forecast stated ( Click Here )
A Martin Storm Pattern means that the pattern was predicted before apps or government/private sources, and since my last name is Martin, like a person who discovered a comet, it is only fair this coming pattern is the Martin Storm Pattern of December 2021. There will be MANY Martin Storm Patterns due to my ability to go longer range in weather.
If you do have plans to travel during that time, I would suggest continuing to monitor the latest forecasts here at Southern California Weather Force, however you get them, either by the member email alert system, social media, or checking the main website daily for updates. The ABOUT section of this site will tell you all you need to know about it for navigation. Click here to read the about section.
OFFICIAL CURRENT issued Southern California Weather Force Alerts by location –
Flood Watch – San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego County … The Inland Empire … All Mountains except Kern County … The High Desert … Morongo Basin and Coachella Valley …
Fog Advisory – Santa Barbara Coast … Ventura Coast/Basin … Los Angeles Coast including Santa Monica to LAX Airport
There are 10 counties in the Southern California Weather Force forecast area and I cannot write about each micro-climate sector in this article. I however can show you the images in the SCWF model suite and you will need to know where you are on a map to read them. Everyone should know where they are on a map so this is no excuse.
The maps below are of flood, rain, snow, snow-level, or wind intensity, whichever is available now. Each one is clickable. Map 1 is NW SoCal, Map 2 is SW SoCal, Map 3 is SE SoCal, Map 4 is NE SoCal, Map 5 is the Cajon Pass, and Map 6 is the SCV region, which includes Gorman at the top.
GET TO KNOW YOUR MAP BECAUSE THESE NEVER CHANGE LOCATIONS
Rain Forecast – Valid later Thursday into Christmas Eve Day December 23-24, 2021
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This was a follow-up to the following articles – You can read them and see how this forecast is evolving from Day 1.
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Southern California Weather Force is a custom weather alert service that began in September 1999 off and is regarded as the most accurate weather service in the region, offering custom alerts, maps, and models to help save life and property. The work done here is never 100% accurate, but it comes pretty close. Southern California Weather Force runs on zones, so if an event happens in a zone that is 10 miles from the border of your zone, the forecast is still valid to activate your zone’s alert system. A company quote to the public is that of “The Joker” and tells other agencies in weather this all the time… “This world deserves a better class of meteorologist… and I’m gonna give it to them”… out-forecasting even the National Weather Service with lead-time and precision, which makes this service a focus of ridicule and envy in the weather community due to having such accuracy. Alerts issued here are issued custom from this office and this office alone. You may not even hear it elsewhere, but if one is issued near or in your area, listen up because “if you do not wish to die in weather, follow, it’ll save your life one day.”