October 9, 2017 at 1:06 pm

Canyon Fire 2; Santa Ana Wind Update; When Are They Leaving?

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While we can be thankful that the temperatures aren’t in the 90s or 100s, the Canyon Fire 2 is on-going, starting today in nearly the same spot as the Canyon Fire.  When will the Santa Ana Winds end … and is it over this month?  Read on for details.

A couple hours ago it started off with a 25 acre report but since then the Canyon Fire 2 has grown some more.  Reports of 5 houses damaged of destroyed is echoing across the same area affected by the Canyon Fire last month along the 91/241 freeways in the Santa Ana Mountains.  The winds have been gusting between 40-60 mph in that canyon since this morning and are showing no signs of letting up this afternoon.

The Santa Ana Winds, also known as drainage winds, have impacted the area today.  It however will not be a prolonged event as I’m predicting the winds slowing down after 8pm tonight in many locations affected today, with some areas in the Ventura Basin remaining gusting into our overnight.

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The winds will predicted well in advanced and the official Santa Ana Wind Warning was issued here to members with a 48 hour lead-time mentioning a strong event is coming, along with a fire risk.

Also during the day on Saturday I did decide to issue a Fire Weather Warning for areas that could be breezy, but not having the strong gusts… residing in the LA/OC Basin zones mostly.  Fire risk model here showed a medium risk fire day in the warning with “While the Santa Ana Wind Warning zones will have 30+ mph winds, these zones in the fire weather warning will have 5-25 mph wind gusts that will work with temperatures near 90F and very dry conditions to make for a medium risk fire hazard, similar to the fire in Orange County and Corona not long ago. ”  While fires cannot be predicted individually, this risk model I developed can show how high of a hazard for fire start and spread.

So what is next?  As per the October 2017 Long Range forecast after this we’ll have a slight cool-down and then another heat-up after mid-month and awaiting the first Pacific Storm toward the end of the month time-frame.

We may have one or two more Santa Ana Wind Events by the time the month is over.

Other than that, we remain with bland/dry weather for most of this month.  So far it is on target, with hints of storm risks elevating the beginning of this next month.

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