A powerful Alaskan storm dubbed here as Major Pacific Storm Elsa has entered the forecast area and storms are already starting to fire. My severe thunderstorm watch is in place along with the rare Thundersnow Warning in the mountains … your forecast starts now …
Major Pacific Storm ELSA is a Category Four at the center. Numerous alerts have been issued, even my rare thundersnow warning in the mountain areas. A thundersnow warning is issued when confidence is high that lightning along with falling snow will happen and this will be the case in our mountain zones through this evening and tonight.
Heavy snowfall is likely in the Kern County Mountains through this evening and overnight tonight. The snow level will rapidly drop through 4,000 FT and remain that way through the night.
For the LA/SBD/RIV County Mountains however the snow-level this evening will start high, around 6000-7000 FT and then drop to 4,000 FT after the 8pm to 9pm hour.
Snowfall amounts will vary because of the type of system this is. If she hits right, we could see a lot of snowfall in all mountain areas … however if she gives one quick and powerful hit it and quit it … amounts will be less than predicted. Snowfall model here at SCWF is an interesting one … showing much more for Gorman Pass than even Big Bear Lake so … it has to be watched.
The system is doing as expected, however it is 20 miles west of the track it should have taken … but this won’t do much to change the forecast … still think the worst zone will be in the Inland Empire zones to the High and Low Desert areas where I do have the Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
With the further west track … San Diego will now be in the thunderstorm zone … And the center of this looks to be from there through the Inland Empire/High Desert this evening … moving east into the Low Deserts through tonight …
Thunderstorms in the watch area could form squall-lines with strong winds, hail, frequent lightning, and maybe a risk of an isolated tornado … Under the strongest cells … localized flooding also likely …
This will be quick for the OC areas .. however High and Low Desert zones may have an extended period of this through tonight … which Desert Center along I-10 may have the worst flooding in many years …
So there you have it … Major Pacific Storm ELSA is heading on in, bringing with her category four conditions at the center … stay tuned to Southern California Weather Force.com
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MEDIUM/LONG RANGE: After this we’ll have a strong offshore flow wind event on Thursday … followed by a storm pattern that could be significant surrounding January 9th. The member section already has the long range information.
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Everyone else is going to have to click the link and go to your micro-climate section and await the alerts that come. Some are out now … and others will be issued.
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