This is a member only post. Many of you are members but this is sort of like getting the inside scoop on what I am currently thinking that I am not ready to put in the public eye at the time. Read on for details …
The cool-down is coming as expected, however trends are going the way of the typical with cold troughs moving east of us, bringing in just cold air and offshore flow. The first, expected around Wednesday … .will bring a round of cold onshore flow winds through the forecast area with isolated drizzle/light rain in spots … with a shot of light snowfall in the Kern Mountains. The offshore ridge is pushing too far east and not enough retrograding to bring the cold system further west. My models continue to be all over the place with this pattern. One thing I can count on is the cooler than average temperatures for Christmas Week, both day and night.
After December 26th until New Years is the next target, which would be my targeted colder system into our region. This is the time-frame that I have been watching, surrounding the 28th. As the ridge moves northwest a bit, a system will get stuck under it and gather strength and move into California. This would pull in the colder air as well … and the end result would be the low snow level event. I cannot at the moment give a good percentage on this system, but this time-frame is the crucial point at which we need in order to finally change this dry pattern.
So with that being said, keep an eye on your updates, whether you get them by email, android app, or the individual Facebook Groups.
I do apologize if this is confusing … we have never seen a pattern like this where we have not seen even a quarter inch of rain in Los Angeles before Christmas … and even I am stumped .. .but training my models to find the solution.