At times I will release member only posts for members only. These posts are posts I am not ready to go public with, and give you an idea on something similar to a backstage pass into what I am thinking at the time. Also, members, because of my injury I did not open the January weather event lotto. I am giving you till Saturday to enter your numbers in on the weather event listed in the lotto form. Read on for pattern details …
We are looking at a lull in the pattern under a ridge of high pressure, which is quite common when a shortwave moves through. A shortwave is a fast moving system that moves through, usually caused by a ridge on each side of it. Since the atmosphere moves these shortwaves through fast, they don’t last long.
On January 18th we start to see the trough values return to the region. The first value looks a bit more north than Major Pacific Storm Nikita so what we’re looking at is a northern slider type event where areas further north get hit more than us further south. Could very well be similar to some of the systems we had during Fall of last year, 2017. Given this, confidence is medium at the time, but it looks like SLO/KERN would see more than areas around Los Angeles with this one.
A longwave trough value is now showing up for after January 22nd. This longwave pattern is not a shortwave like Nikita was. A longwave is a large trough pattern that is locked into position that rotates shortwave storm systems around it and impacts our region with multiple disturbances. These are the types of patterns that brings interesting weather to our forecast area.
My algorithm values show this could be a long duration rain/storm event setting up, which would certainly help in this year’s rainfall totals. I stated in the January forecast that we could be just below the average for rainfall this month.. Los Angeles had over two inches so we’ll need a bit more to average the month. These could do it. The pattern sticks around well through January 25th so I’ll continue to monitor this for you.
Some of these could bring the trough axis far enough south in the longwave pattern to bring colder storm systems in for better snowfall chances in our local mountains. So if your business spikes with snowfall.. this would be a good time to make note and prepare for a business surge.
NOTE: January lotto runs till Saturday so get your numbers in by clicking here