Tropical Storm ROSA is about to make landfall in Northern Baja, Mexico and will move into the Yuma forecast zones overnight tonight and Phoenix by the morning. Out ahead of the system however the moisture is streaming northward into our region and deeper than yesterday for certain spots. This is acting similar to the ‘Summer Monsoon’ pattern so again like that some of you in the alert/watch areas will not see anything while 10 miles away could. Read on for details and read the article inside carefully, including the many links where to find additional info …
First I will say that the cutoff low to the west is giving me such a headache that I will not be forecasting on it till 12-18 hours before each zone gets a higher confidence for an alert/forecast to go out. This forecasting will start with the San Luis Obispo / Santa Barbara County areas sometime on Tuesday and working eastward toward Ventura/Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Inland Empire areas later on, even not mentioning much till Wednesday in those areas. I just do not see the need to forecast something and change it due to the cutoff low changing track and having to confuse everyone. So IF your area is in higher confidence to see something you will get the alert on the e-mail alert system or your designated Facebook Group for alerts and links can be found below.
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Today will act similar to the ‘Summer Monsoon’. We have a southerly flow coming through the San Diego, Riverside, ,and San Bernardino Mountains, northward into the high desert areas. This area is where I have placed the Severe Thunderstorm Watch product, which is the ‘yellow box’ on the image in this article. I’ve gone as far west as Hemet/Banning/Yucaipa for this as a brief northwest flow this afternoon would bring them west on longitude.
Other watches for thunderstorms in the Eastern Deserts do exist.. and advisories for ANY pop-up showers in the San Diego, Orange, Western Inland Empire, and Los Angeles areas. These are low confidence areas for today so it is 50/50 on chances there just as the ‘blue area’ in previous articles showed with ‘iffy/dryslot’. There is moisture in those areas however but the thing throwing this a wrench is a capping inversion to limit development today. The eastern deserts do not have this capping inversion and should have thunderstorms today however.
The thunderstorm model in the premium member section does show some chances in the Kern Mountain/Desert areas but as I have stated before we could get a shearing effect if the winds aloft are too high and the instability is too low. Cloud would develop and the tops would shear off them. This is a model algorithm I am working on and trying to introduce because many wrong forecasts in the past have come back errors because of tops being sheared off. This past Summer I did successfully create such an algorithm to predict this and today will yet again see if that was correct as I am for now holding off on alerts in the Kern County zones.
A nice day is expected in the SBA/SLO/VT/KERN zones today .. as well along along the LA/OC coasts … and the drive to and from Vegas must be met with caution.
Rosa’s main impacts tonight through tomorrow will be felt worse along the Colorado River Valley of Imperial County and into Yuma, AZ … Tstorm watches are taking care of this.
You may go to this page (time-sensitive) to hit your county and see what is issued there – link – http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherforce.com/current-scwf-alerts-by-county/
The Southern California Weather Force has different Facebook groups that you can ask for notifications from in order to get the latest posts affecting those regions. If that area is talked about in an article, alert, and such .. it’ll be posted there and you can be notified.
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Find your micro-climate group here – http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherforce.com/scwf-weather-alert-facebook-groups-by-region/
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