El Nino values of 1.5 to 1.9 are considered Strong El Nino values. . A Super El Nino is 2.0 to 2.4. We have not seen a 2.4 value in recorded history and that was hit not too long ago. Now an unprecedented 2.5 value has been hit, bringing us to 2.5 to 2.9 and a scale never before reached since records have been kept. Read on for more details …
In what we could considered a Mega El Nino now the 2.5 is something we’ve never seen and nor can one tell what it will do. My answers have given more questions and even though I’m still going for November with the start of the pattern … a 2.5 is something I’ve never seen and no records go back to tell if a 2.5 reverses Stronger El Nino effects. Could a 2.5 mean a Strong El Nino still or does it mean something opposite. That’s the question I asked myself months ago. Still, will maintain what is already known and what is known is no Super El Nino has ever failed to bring above average rainfall to Southern California.
This month is closing out with a rather weak front … and more of a wind event for some than anything else. What we’re looking at as we move toward Halloween is a mixed bag of different areas receiving weather changes so I’ll briefly touch-base on that.
First and foremost the entire region will cool-down so this is a given this week. Today is the warmest of the work week and after today we decline in temperatures quite rapidly.
On Thursday, 10/29/2015, we have a stronger northwest to southeast flow over the area. Area around Los Angeles may receive gusty winds and these are not just the Santa Ana Wind zones. Areas in the basin/coastal zones would receive them … colder winds out of the Gorman Pass. Events like this have caused damage in Hollywood in the past and while we do have the same direction of wind flow … this will be weaker than previous patterns like it so maybe 35-40 mph wind gusts at times, some isolated areas seeing higher. This is also for some mountain/desert zones. Additional alerts and more detailed zones will be given shortly.
On Friday, north winds take over and eventually northeast which would open the pattern for a brief hit of Santa Ana Winds. The temperature of the winds will be cooler than the normal blowtorch winds due to the origin, but they never-the-less will be gusty below passes and canyons … sometimes reach 30-40 mph and some 50 mph+ readings in the most vulnerable pass locations being seen.
Precipitation with the system will be confined to areas near the mountain slopes … that is Gorman Pass … some Inland Empire locations and the San Diego County foothill/mountain areas. Simply put, it’s an upslope type precipitation chance for most metro areas … but if light rain could be squeezed out for the Kern/SLO forecast zones it will be …
Another weak front hits around November 3rd …
November will be very crucial on this year’s El Nino. We need to see activity by November 20th to ensure the pattern is favorable for larger storms. Activity is not the weak frontal zone activity we will see before Halloween … activity means a stronger Pacific Storm front. There are indications with this happening as the month moves along … so the forecast remains for it to happen.
Stay tuned to Southern California Weather Force.com for updated micro-climate forecasts if alerts are issued.