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Issued Zones: All Southern California …
Site: SouthernCaliforniaWeatherForce.com has issued a Storm Statement effective now for the next series of storms, outlining potential track, category, and timing …
Date: 12/30/15 at 12:30pm PT
Forecast: Well it looks like our chances of strong to deadly storm systems will reach our area next week January 4th onward as the pacific jet stream rages southward. There are currently three or four storms in our scope. The first system around January 4th is going to be watched as it could slide southward into Baja and leave us high and dry. However this is only one of our model solutions and the rest we have show it hitting us. This is about what we’re going with right now and it should be the weaker one of the storm series. So here we go. The precipitation alert section clearly shows the blue (flood value) being met on both of our models in the next 10 day period. This means that these storm system combinations will indeed flood many areas, causing damage from landslides. Timing is of moderate confidence right now but from a period between January 4th and 11th is the period being watched for a series of these systems to move through. Details cannot be given to an extent however you can go to the precipitation section as see what the projections are.
The following is step by step slight detailed introduction on what the storm systems have a chance at having in terms of dynamics. Please remember by reading this … it can change … but it will give you a sense at what type of systems they would be if they hit as ‘currently’ projected.
1st system – Stronger, comes in around January 5th perhaps and kicks on the heels of the first one. The system has a snow-level of 6,000 to 7,000 FT. along the main front so this is a medium snow-level where Big Bear could get a mix of rain/snow in the heavy parts with all snow at the upper resorts. The storm looks to have more instability to work with along all coastal areas and a bit inland … with more shear. Instability could be lacking along the coast for a tornado watch but what I’m seeing is a classic signature for thunderstorm producing waterspouts that landfall as small tornadoes. These are extremely common with larger El Nino influenced storms. A heavy rain producing front with some gusty wind potential and scattered thunderstorms with waterspout to small tornado land-falling potential would make this a preliminary C4
Central Category Potential: Four .. out of Six
The 3rd system is too far in scope to gain details attm so the focus is the first two.
Both systems are highly dangerous in the metro areas because it has been awhile for this much rain to fall in a short period of time with strong fronts … Be advised if in a landslide area.
All desert areas will see less rain than the metros in these types of systems … but very strong winds and some rainfall is likely for all of the non-metro Southern California regions north and east of the mountains.
Surf will be high with both storms, with the second one in the middle of this next week producing 10 foot waves in all coastal areas with 17+ FT waves in the Vandenberg to San Luis Obispo forecast zones.
Please refer to the precipitation model showing the areas within the forecast area that will see the most rainfall from this series of storm systems. Click Here For That
10 mile rule: These alerts issued on this site means that within your zone and 10 miles from you will see the event forecast for. You may or may not see the event but it means you are in the zone or 10 miles from where someone will.
Forecaster: KM
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