September 13, 2015 at 7:40 pm

Hybrid Storm: Monday and Tuesday Hits With Precipitation From Ex-Linda

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Former Hurricane Linda’s remnants will move ashore later Monday, mainly from the VT/LA County line to San Diego County and points in-between.  Read on for the latest details.

The surface low is much further south the most models thought that wanted it to go along with Model 2.  Those of you that have been following will know what that means.  Model 2 showed a lot of rain in VT/SBA/SLO/KERN County as well as the LA/OC/IE/SD areas.   I wasn’t going to go with this one and kept the bulk of the moisture centering the OC/IE/SD forecast areas.  This seems to be correct.

The storm looks a bit further south so what that would do is make lighter rainfall for the areas around Ventura, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Kern … while having mediocre but appreciable rainfall for LA and the High Desert … with the most hitting the San Diego, Inland Empire, Orange forecast zones, especially the south/southwest foothills and points 5 miles south/southwest of them in the OC/IE/SD forecast areas.

The system has two separate lifting zones.  Aided by a marginal (but strong for this time of year) sub-tropical jet (common in El Nino), the 80-90 mph jet stream will cause stronger upper divergence … which is what will increase some of the rainfall rates.  Within some of the OC/IE/SD areas there will be areas where we have higher rainfall rates, which could lead to localize street flooding.

Monday will have increasing light rain over the day from a deepening of the marine layer in spots, with heavier showers later in the afternoon or evening … into the night … another round hits on Tuesday for the same areas affected on Monday.

Winds with the system will be confined to the desert regions, where SCWF Wind Advisories remain in place.
Source:  Wind Advisory

High Desert regions will see passing shower chances, but again heaviest in south into the metros.

Surf will not be up with system …

Snow levels are over 13,000 – 14,000 feet so not an issue.

The week will be below average in temperatures … but not so fast … We will warm up toward the weekend.  A cutoff system will be watched for any activity during this warm-up … but too far away to really make any assumptions on who would be affected.

The storm system has a northern branch of moisture and divergence which again as stated before could start the SBA/SLO/KERN zones off as early as tomorrow and likely the first areas to see anything associated with the system.

Southerly branch begins to affect San Diego first during the evening, with a warm-front rising northward overnight into the OC/IE/LA areas. VT would see a passing surface front west of the warm front during the evening so precip is expected there.

Areas in the High/Low Deserts would see increasing chances on Tuesday mainly as the warm front slides up there … with Tuesday having the highest rainfall rates across any part of the metro region … along the main cold front.

Areas though tomorrow in the LA/OC/IE/SD zones could see increasing clouds later in the period with light showers starting in the upper valley areas due to the increasing onshore flow … but it wont be the bulk of the event.

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