The following will explain a bit of a theory I had in the beginning and why a Super El Nino value has caused us to remain drier than normal, giving a possible solution on how this will be fixed in what I’ve dubbed the Martin El Nino Anomaly. Patience is key as we move toward January. Read on for details.
My theory is simple … They say there is too much of a good thing. A balance and taking everything in moderation is what I’m getting at here. El Nino’s values are in uncharted territory, a record in some areas with a max 3.1c measured last month. This number is going down and is now at a 2.7 to 2.8c reading. A Super El NIno is 2.5c and higher. We’ve never seen these values before. My theory is that these values being so high is acting like a La Nina in our region rather than El Nino. The rest of the USA east of the Rocky Mountains is behaving like El Nino, with us in Southern California colder than the East Coast. This is called a blowtorch pattern and is common in Strong El Ninos in the Eastern United States.
Our region is experiencing a surface ridge due west of Southern California. This ridge is strong at the surface and when a front comes toward it .. the front dries out within it and is not intact fully when reaching the Southland. Instead, the surface ridge is deflecting storms northeast into Northern California and the Pacific Northwest. Don’t get me wrong, we need this deflection for the overall drought outlook to improve … however this ridge has been what is stopping us from getting big storms into our region. So if the higher El Nino value over 2.5c means the ridge is intact, will it weaken anytime soon?
The only way to get this ridge to weaken is (in my theory) to drop those values below 2.5c into the 1.7 to 2.3c zone. If the ridge does weaken as a result, my theory would have been correct in that a Super El Nino means drier and colder weather for us as long as it is in that criteria for that time. Named it the Martin El Nino Anomaly, which would be that surface ridge west of here.
The drop is at a rate of 0.1 to 0.2c a week when it gets going and this would get to 2.3c sometime in January. If the storms do break the ridge down and we finally get them into Southern California, ,we would have a prolonged rainy season, extending through April … due to how high the El Nino values are and it would only be January. Would take awhile for them to drop below 1.0c and change the storm track back up north as a result.
So the end result will be weak systems through Christmas Eve … and it’ll be colder than normal. This means it’ll feel a lot like Christmas everywhere with these same temperatures we’re experiencing now. This surface ridge is the cause of the colder than normal conditions. It won’t be 100% dry but we’ll see some weaker fronts move through in the next 7-10 Day period.
Now the period Christmas into New Years is crucial to the December forecast being on track. I already got the colder than normal but if these El Ninos drop below 2.5c between then … the ridge would get a chance to break and we would open the door to larger storm systems. It will only take one good one to push us slightly above average for the month of December, which was the original longer range forecast.
I still have to maintain that around Christmas a colder air mass would come in and this would bring the High Desert some snowfall.
Glad it happened because now I’m wondering if a Super La Nina would flood us … even if it’s a La Nina … Traditionally we know El Nino for floods, La Nina for dry weather … but if the Super El Nino is drier … the Super La Nina (never seen it before) could be a drought buster. It’ll help me in the future if we ever get a Super La Nina … which would mean any Fall Season with a Super La Nina would have back to back storms, leading to a drier Jan/Mar after it drops from Super to Strong.
So I’m maintaining this to break and for us to get storms into the region … it’ll just be more prolonged and we need more patience.