November 3, 2019 at 1:05 pm

OFFICIAL LEAD-TIME FORECAST: Santa Ana Winds Will Return This Month; SCWF Urging Residents In Fire Prone and Power Shutdown Zones To Prepare Now

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Santa Ana Winds Will Return This Month; SCWF Urging Residents In Fire Prone and Power Shutdown Zones To Prepare Now so read on for details … You have your lead-time – it is up to you with what you want to do with it …

The month of October featured an above average Santa Ana Wind Pattern and November will be no different, except it will happen in the last half.  We are relatively left with a zonal flow at the moment.  Neither us or the Pacific Northwest is fairing well with any appreciable storm events.  This is about to change though as the ridge of High Pressure returns to Western Canada, with an end result in diving storm systems down into the Rockies once again.  As these storms dive into the Rockies out of Canada, arctic air blasts with them will create thermal support, that of which is needed to bring the strong Santa Ana Wind Events to Southern California.

These will be colder wind events but it does not at all mean lower fire risks.  You saw what happened with the Ventura County fires of the last cold wind event.  All we need is a remained dry atmosphere and that will be so … Expecting frost, freeze, and hard freeze criteria to be met in wind sheltered areas with this pattern with cold air advecting in from the Great Basin.

It will be quiet until then.  Then… after November 15th… the pattern unleashes once again and maintains for a good two weeks.  Now this is a very amplified pattern coming up and sometimes the ridge can scoot to the west a bit more, allowing for a storm to enter California so toward the end of the month is definitely when I will be seeking to continue to find my first named storm in our region.

As stated in the 2019-2020 forecast, this season will be a late start … and it looks like we are remaining on the track.  But for now, go prepare…


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