March 2021 ended with well below normal temperatures. April will end with a seesaw pattern, which is quite typical of the month. Temperatures and rainfall will fluctuate back and forth so for the full forecast on when that will be read on for details …
April 2021 will signal the seesaw pattern. A seesaw pattern is when the jet stream is starting to adjust to a pre-summer pattern, which means at times it’ll be hot and at times it will be cold. From what I can see and crunch from the current jet stream pattern is that we will return to a chance of precipitation and cooler weather after around April 9th. Several days later we return to a slight heatwave followed by another cold spell after the 19th or around there, which will last through the end of the month for the most part. Each cold spell will signal the chance of returning rainfall. We should see another sizable system before the season closes.
As a result of this pattern, areas along the coast will be colder than normal, areas inland in the basins will have average temperatures, and areas in the deeper Inland Empire, Bakersfield, High, and Low Desert regions will see warmer than average temperatures. If you need to get the roofing done this month, the best time to do so is the first half of it. There are indications of stronger teleconnection patterns for storms near the end of the month or the beginning of May as far south as our area.
SUMMER MONSOON: I will not go too much into this, but as I said last Summer the reason for my prediction of fewer monsoon events was because of the growing strong La Nina, which is what should have followed into the winter season forecast as well. So with that being said, the La Nina fading would result in more Eastern Pacific Hurricanes, which would up the moisture profiles in the Desert Southwest, including Arizona, and bring us a stronger monsoon flow. This is what I will be monitoring. However, if the La Nina fails to diminish, it’ll be another dry period again. But, the chance of it diminishing is higher than not so my final forecast may reflect what I already stated in this paragraph.
There you have it, a seesaw pattern to come and a developing monsoon season …
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