It is almost that time of the year when Hurricanes form west of Mexico and move deep into the Pacific Ocean and our first system might just be early this year, probing the chance of an active Summer to come tropics-wise. The California Fault Stress Model is elevating in response to a coming geomagnetic storm and syzygy set to hit by mid to end this week so read on for details …
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Typically we do see tropical depressions in the Eastern Pacific Ocean Basin this time of year, but named ones over that limit in the realm of Tropical Storm or even Hurricane waits till later June and even July. The season looks to be starting early this year as developing thunderstorms down there west of Mexico along the Tropic of Cancer look strong enough for the pressure to start dropping and surface lows to begin developing by the end of this month and into the first week of June. Should this happen, exhaust from the storms would shove moisture north into Mexico and set off thunderstorms there. From there, the resulting outflow would bring ‘monsoon’ moisture to the Southwestern United States earlier this year, mainly parts of New Mexico and Arizona, but it would be a matter of time for these to start affecting our region this Summer.
Since we are in neither a La Nina or El Nino at the heart of Summer, we can expect a number of Hurricanes to form down there whereas last year the La Nina prevented such. This is why in my final monsoon forecast I stated less activity last year would happen. This year I am leaning towards more than last for sure due to the fact we are not going to be in a La Nina at the peak of the activity. Eyes are on the first week of June to see what the developing system does to the upper atmosphere. Monsoon moisture gradually builds from these systems in Mexico and a developing ridge would pull it into our region. This ridge has not formed yet so the influx is not expected to come from that until July.
As for the California Fault Stress Model. A station inside the ground here at the Southern California Weather Force office measures ULF (Ultra Low Frequency) waves and when they start to elevate is when attention is paid that a moderate or higher quake is expected in the area. Geomagnetic storms have been known to affect the fault systems and a sunspot a couple of days ago put out a rapid-fire of over 12 solar flares in the direction of Earth. These flares produced a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) set to hit the region on Wednesday at 1-2 pm local Pacific Time. A geomagnetic storm is expected, which can make the system unsettled as well as disrupt GPS navigation systems at times. The Geysers and Mammoth are key areas to look for when the system is becoming more unstable. Both areas are ‘talking’ to each other right now so attention will be paid over the next 10 day period. A total eclipse on Wednesday also enters into the late Jim Berkland’s Syzygy theory. So we have a geomagnetic storm, a syzygy, and an elevated system so tensions are getting higher.
So that is it, eyes are on the tropics and fault systems over the next 10 day period. Stay tuned to Southern California Weather Force for updates …
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