We have gone ahead and issued a Super El Nino Watch, which means conditions are being watched for a Super El Nino to develop. A Super El Nino is classified as having +2.0c above the average temperatures in the ENSO regions of the Central/Eastern Pacific at the equator. Residents in Southern California are urged to stock up on sandbags over the next month because supply and demand will kick in toward October 1st. The warm ‘blob’ everyone is worried around may not be a problem for us and we have a massive heatwave heading our way … read on …
In one week we have jumped from +1.7c (Strong El Nino) to +1.9c in the ENSO regions. This marks only +0.1c away from a Super El Nino. Seeing it this soon could either be good … or it could be bad. The reason it is bad is because of the trade winds kick in between now and November, the El Nino would fade. The reason is could be good is because we are maintaining the upwards trends into Super El Nino Status, exactly as the SCWF Model curve predicted at this time. Some models do show it hitting an unheard of +3.0c … however we’ll keep it between +2.1c and +2.3c with a gradually upwards slowing trend from where it is now over the next month or two.
As the headline stated, this month and next you are urged to stock up on sandbags if you live in the flood prone zones. Supply and demand will kick in during October and November when the effects of the Fall/Winter/Spring El Nino starts to kick in.
El Nino has been responsible for the tropical systems hitting the Hawaiian Islands this month … and this will continue for the next couple of months as the tropical tracks are aiming those areas. A trough after August 20th will be along the Western United States … with a ridge to the east. Any tropical systems and/or hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific would be sucked northward toward California. While the individual hurricane cannot be predicted, the tracks are such that systems would aim us.
El Nino has further been responsible for the wide temperature swings. Overall, we’ll just average for temperatures. This will bump slightly above average as a whole this Summer when August 20th comes around because the temperatures will start to rise between the end of this week and then. Temperatures should be above average across the region with widespread 100s in the valleys and 115-120 for the low deserts. But … after the third week of August, the temperatures as a whole plummet again. There are indications that September will be above average in temperatures, with a number of heatwave events that would put the summer as a whole back into slight above average.
The warm ‘blob’ everyone is worried about that has deflected storms away from California for the last 4-5 years now may not be such a problem if we can maintain the Super El Nino. The reason why is because El Nino has a very strong jet stream pattern right into California. If the warm water off the coast tries to deflect storms, the problem areas would be less rain in Northern California … while Southern California seems like it will be drenched no matter what. Still, to end the drought we need a lot of snow in the Central/Northern California areas so if the storms deflect into Southern California only … We’re going to be in a continued drought across the state as a whole even if Southern California gets punished.
To have this much rain in a Super El Nino will be just as bad as drought. Major flooding will cause landslides and the damages could easily top $500 million and higher once El Nino is over.
So we’re maintaining the development of the warm waters of El Nino … stay tuned for the latest as we move through the next month.