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Traditionally Southern California is Dry 7 out of 10 winters. So of course you get forecasters who predict a dry winter every year and they can be 70% right. That’s still a C-. But El Nino has something to contend with this year that we have never seen before on a merge. The blob is a warm body of water off the West Coast. Since 2011 if has built a strong ridge over and over again each Winter, deflecting storms into the Pacific Northwest and Canada … and creating some of the coldest winters in the Eastern USA.
Here are some scenarios that can happen that are only speculation at this point.
Scenario 1 – The blob cools off with storm activity in the area this fall and we have a healthy Super El Nino to slams storms into California. This would be a typical El Nino Pattern.
Scenario 2 – The Blob maintains and so does the Super El Nino. A ridge would form yet again, however because of the strong subtropical jet being further north, storms would hit Southern California only, leaving Northern California dry and prolonging the state’s drought.
Scenario 3 – The blob acts as a warmer body source and fuels the storms coming at California, which would also boost the probability of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across the entire state, while producing the worst flooding the state will see in many years.
As you can see we really do not know what the blob will do with a Super El Nino Present. One thing for sure is … Southern California looks to get slammed with storms no matter the scenario. A Super El Nino has never failed that region.