Super El Nino Strengthening; One Month To Go For Showtime; Prelim September Forecast



The star of the show this summer has been the growing El Nino, which has since obtained Super El Nino Status … and it continues to grow with now a 2.1 value, up 0.1 since last week.  Read on for the details below …

The number value of the El Nino is now at a 2.1 and that means we are only 0.3 away from breaking the all time record for El Nino since records began more than 150 years ago.  The value 2.1 is Super El Nino, which starts at 2.0.  We are remaining in the Super El Nino Watch and will upgrade to advisory once it hits the middle of September, warning when it hits the beginning of October …

August through October is a very crucial time period for El Nino.  El Nino can easily fade with a return of trade winds between this period and it would knock the value down fast.  So far we have not seen that through the month of August, which is a good sign this may maintain and strengthen through September.

Speaking of September … what does El Nino have in store for us?  El Nino in September usually brings wide varieties of temperature swings.  These swings would bring colder weather for beginning, hot in mid, and colder end month … Or Vice Versa … but right now preliminary estimations are for what we call a see-saw temperature pattern of cold/hot, changing weekly.

With precipitation chances … We’re seeing higher amounts should tropical systems get caught into the flow.  If you look anomaly southwest of Southern California, the warmer water is actually warmer than the previous two weeks.  This would mean that any hurricane caught in that area would be able to sustain some strength as it curves back northeast into Southern California.  Now with all forecasts we cannot predict the actual hurricane the next month, but we can predict the favorable tracks should one form.  To get activity here, we must have a Category 4-5 hurricane and the flow must be favorable.   September has a favorable flow if a stronger storm can get up into the flow.  Hawaii still has a real tough season ahead as the tracks are straight into the island through the month.

El Nino influenced Pacific Storms will start in October … TBD what part of the month.

The FULL September temperature / precipitation outlook will be out before I leave on vacation between August 29th and September 7th.

Stay tuned …

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