Hybrid Storm: First Related Advisories Issued, Models Are Not Agreeing Yet



Former Hurricane Linda will do a merger very soon with a trough out of the Northwest in the next 24 hours and move through Southern California on Monday and Tuesday.  Read on for further details.

This will be the first ever Former Hurricane / Pacific Trough Hybrid pattern that I’ve ever predicted so what that means is there will be surprises with the system’s track … and also letdowns.   Two models here at SCWF are showing the storm track with various paths do the main moisture plume that would give flooding rains to areas it impacts over.

First and foremost are the wind advisories issued at SCWF for the desert areas.  As the storm moves into the area, the cold front will produce much cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday and with this front will also produce advisory level winds in the high/low desert areas … with gusts over 30 to 45 mph being possible.
Source:  https://www.southerncaliforniaweatherforce.com/2015/09/12/wind-advisory-16/

The original thought was for the main moisture plume to center Orange County with LA at the northwest side of it and San Diego on the southeast side of it … impacting the Inland Empire as well as the High Desert regions, while leaving the low desert zones dry.  It also would miss Ventura areas westward … This will be maintained until our models start to agree.

Model 1 is showing the LA area seeing less rain than OC/IE/SD zones, with the OC in the middle of the action.

Model 2 is showing a flooding event from Santa Barbara, Kern, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange County areas into the Inland Empire zones.  Granted this could be overdoing it … it’s still the position of the plume that has more questions than answers.  The surface low that would move into the area and cause this would have to come into the bight around the Orange County areas for a good amount of rain … and satellite loops of the surface zone of Former Hurricane Linda are a bit south of where one would want to find it.

Which way do we go from here in the forecast?
Right now I’m going to remain with the original forecast track, however adding a bit of uncertainty to Ventura/Santa Barbara, and Kern County on the map (pink color) because if the storm nudges northward as Model 2 suggests … these areas would be in the upper divergent zone of the storm and thus rain would impact those areas as well.  With a split decision between Model 1 and 2 this is where we are right now until the next 24 hours.

Below is the image of Model 1 (left) and Model 2 (right) … Showing the vast differences …


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