El Nino Update: Remains Intact To Tie Strongest On Record; When Does It Begin?



Many are still questioning when these storms will actually hit and with a cutoff low veering south of the area leaving many dry, questioning of El Nino has begun.  But it is too early to call that off and I’ll tell you why.

Statistically, Super El Nino values such as this have never been with a dry season.  It’s only September!  Why is it I’m getting a ton of contacts worrying about El Nino in September?  El Nino storms that give us our best seasons do not occur till October or November, with the peak being December, January, and February.  This is still in the forecast.

Latest values suggest a hold of the +2.3c above average water temps in the El Nino regions monitored for such.  The storm near the area causing all the clouds today will leave later tomorrow, but that is a cutoff low.  El Nino has jet stream drive storms, not cutoff lows.  The best way I can explain the difference in ease of forecasting for jet stream driven storms vs cutoff lows is this.  A cutoff low is a raft in a calm body of water.  You don’t know what time or what direction the raft will travel in that.  It floats about and does whatever.  A jet stream driven storm is like a raft on a raging river.  You know the speed of the river (jet stream) and you can calculate when and where the raft will be down river with relative ease.  That is jet stream storm forecasting (El Nino) vs cutoff low forecasting.

El Nino is still expected to maintain through the rest of the season and it has shown no signs of weakening.  In fact, bursts of westerlies have weakened the trades even further and we will continue to see the conditions persist and maybe even strengthen.

The 1997-1998 El Nino 2was a +2.3 later in the year … we already are at a +2.3 now.

As the jet stream starts reacting more violently up north, larger troughs and ridges will form and this is when storms will drop into the area … This starts in October for our region.

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