A strong system that will only give Southern California weaker dynamics will brush through on Monday. Some will see wind, others rain, others nothing at all … find out where by reading on in this detailed forecast and looking at the future radar projections for Monday within the article.
A front will move through the Vandenberg, San Luis Obispo, and Kern County zones on Monday morning into the afternoon. The type of storm system with low level flow would bring a stronger type front through those areas and a weaker front through Ventura, LA/OC/SD/IE/ High Desert zones. So the most rain on Monday would fall in the Northwest forecast area of San Luis Obispo and and Kern County. With the west to east flow, the Kern Valleys stand the best area for the most longer duration rain event out of anywhere in Southern California.
Furthermore, with the west to east flow, a quick burst front would move across some of VT/LA/OC/IE/SD areas, with the same for the High Desert zones due to the deep-layer moisture values providing such. Some areas of LA/OC/IE would be left out … never-the-less stronger gusts over 20-30 mph will be possible across any area of the region on Monday afternoon/evening. The strongest winds will be in the mountain/desert areas … the strongest west to east flow low level winds will be in the Ridgecrest forecast areas where warning (50+mph) or higher winds will be possible. If you have the email or app alert system set right, you’ll receive those higher alerts this evening separate to this article.
Deep-layer moisture will not exist for the Low Desert so both the San Diego and Riverside Mountains will block the moisture from those areas and you’ll be left with only wind … However the backside of the system could bring more precipitation to the higher deserts on Tuesday rather than Monday … maybe even a shot of thunder.
The snow level will drop to 6,000 feet on Monday evening, meaning a much cooler night to come … however all precipitation will be gone so no snow products will be issued for the front, but will watch Tuesday for convective showers, and a snow level of 6,000 feet. Mammoth Mountain however will receive good snowfall from the system, being further north, higher, and in the better storm dynamics.
Because the storm system is stronger in the Northwest forecast area with weaker dynamics in the metros, a weakening front type system means no name will be given and thus Pacific Storm Bonnie will not be named for this one. Category One Conditions (lighter dynamics) would exist for all areas … what is lacking for category two in the KERN/SLO zones would be appreciable thunderstorm dynamics.
The weaker fronts at this time of year are not signs of a weaker El Nino pattern, but the long range is starting to look real grim. I’ll maintain the stronger storms arriving this season but many are going to doubt it because of how some of this month (November) will be going.
Radars will be available on Monday through Tuesday for the event for premium subscribers and they’ll turn on overnight.