November 2, 2015 at 4:19 pm

Mega El Nino Values Surge Toward 3.0; Pacific Depression Moving Through; Details



The Mega El Nino scale from 2.5 to 2.9 was reached last week and this week the value is now 2.7, a 0.2c jump.  This means that we are well within the Strongest El Nino on record.  A Pacific Depression is moving across Southern California today, bringing rain for some, wind for others, or a combination of both. Tuesday another impulse moves in that could up the thunderstorm potential, a separate system!  Details by reading on.

A Pacific Depression is located across Kern County right now, stretching a frontal zone southward into Ventura and offshore into the bight (island region).  The storm is what is known as a tail-end charlie type system where Central/Northern California have the brunt of it and we get the tail-end of it.  Surprisingly the front is further south and this means that most of the region (except the low desert) would see rainfall from it.

Member Section:  Premium members section will have snowfall charts, rapid updates, thunderstorm forecast and more coming through this evening … Also the radar/lightning charts have been.
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Winds are gusting out there in ALL areas of Southern California due to the stronger surface low over Las Vegas and this is working with the frontal zone to produce stronger wind gusts out there and yes this was expected if you read yesterday’s article.  Winds will continue to increase through the evening.  Wind Advisories are in place for areas where 30-35+ mph gusts are to be expected, possibly even impacting the LAX areas.

The snow level will drop to 6,000 feet tonight and this means freezing temperatures for that level and above … including all mountain resort areas.  Any rain that falls on this front would bring black ice tonight … be advised for such.  Winter Weather Advisories may be needed for Tuesday due to the residual moisture and snow level being at 6,000 to 6,500 feet.  This would mean that any convective hit and miss showers in the mountains would result in flurries for some and heavier snow for others… in short bursts and varying between distances.

Furthermore, a brisk west to east flow would bring continued showers across the OC/IE/SD areas, with San Diego seeing more rainfall on Tuesday than those areas combined.  These will be island and orographic effect showers so if you’re in San Diego you’ll see these develop, hitting off and on through your Tuesday.

Being we do have another impulse separate from this Pacific Depression moving in Tuesday into Wednesday, we may be introducing thunderstorm chances into the forecast area.  This will be taken care of in the member section and also via alerts over the day on Tuesday.   However, feel that some mountain slopes may see thunderstorms tonight.

With the flow being northwest to southeast, some LA Valley zones would see some pop up activity … as well as into the High Desert Victor Valley areas with the El Mirage Convergence Zone.  Tuesday is more of a convective off and on activity day so it will vary across the region on who gets what … additional alerts would be issued if needed to cover the bases.

El Nino Values have indeed surged into Mid-Point for the Mega El Nino Category.  A 2.7 is extremely interesting and no one alive today has seen those values.  How high can it go?  Well we’ll find out over the next month!

Mega – 2.5 – 2.9
Super 2.0 – 2.4
Strong – 1.5 to 1.9
Moderate – 1.0 to 1.4
Weak – 0.5 to 0.9

Long range is showing completely different scenarios ranging from dry weather to big storms by the middle of NEXT week, the time-frame of November 9-12.  Having said this, the current system’s direction of impact means that confidence remains that this Mega El Nino will perform as expected, with storm after storm coming this next season.






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