El Nino is now at a whopping +2.8c and we are on track to start the storms very shortly. We have less than two weeks to start seeing the atmosphere respond. November 2015 is going as forecast so far so what does December, January, February, and March look like? Read on for details.
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November 2015 has a storm track mainly into the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, leaving Southern California with average values. It does not show dry values so I do believe we will see another storm this month given this pattern, out of the northwest and probably pretty cold for mountain resort snow. Given the average storm track is north of here, this month has more Santa Ana Wind patterns than any other month this season. Many are saying because November 2015 is looking like this so far El Nino effects will not show. This is false, remember El Nino is a ‘deep winter’ pattern. Monsoonal pattern is ‘deep summer’ so starting later in June, peaking July right? So equivalent November is like May and no monsoonal pattern is seen in May. So we need to get to December to start the El Nino pattern.
During December 2015 the pattern shifts with the jet stream starting to rage and dig southward, impacting California and putting Southern California in above normal precipitation. Because of the storm flow into the region, do feel colder than average temperatures will happen and this is great for if you want a White Christmas at the mountain resorts.
January 2016 will feature an even further south digging raging pacific jet stream and this would bring true Pineapple Express patterns and severe storms into Southern California. Although the northern half of California will receive more precipitation, Southern California will still be well above average for rainfall. Because of the Pineapple Express connections we’ll have slightly above average temperatures during this month. Still, the resorts will fair pretty well. Where we need it most though … Central/Northern California will have a major drought dent.
In February 2016 a ridge builds where it did as the Alaskan Low weakens some and a weakening in the pacific jet happens. This would bring average precipitation (still storms at times) into Southern California. With some of the ridging at times, a slightly above normal temperature would result.
March 2016 returns the raging southern pacific jet into California once again and we regain the month with severe storms with average temperatures …
So the Mega El Nino remains on track and November 2015 is behaving as forecast, Stay tuned to Southern California Weather Force.com