Many of you across Ventura and Los Angeles will mutter to yourselves the words, “What Storm” as you have many times in the last month from these inside sliders.  This again will happen, but some of you will see the rain or snow activity.  However toward Friday or Saturday as I stated in the article back on the 22nd, a system is being watched.

SCWF Wind Advisories span across most desert/mountain areas, issued yesterday for today and Wednesday.  These advisories are for 30-45 mph winds with stronger 50-60+ mph gusts in the eastern mountain slope areas, especially overnight tonight into Wednesday morning.  Click Here For The Wind Advisory.

NOTE:  If you are a SCWF subscriber on a monthly basis we rolled out the season pass system so you can get rid of monthly charges to just have one season and be done with it with no obligation to renew and no reoccurring payments for our lowest price.  If you’re not a member, you’re missing out on rain alert maps, snow level forecast/intensity maps, thunderstorm forecasts, personal contact form to me and much more that would narrow down what you can expect –
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Now, who’s going to see the most precipitation?  First I’m going to go with who is not going to see anything from ‘A sprinkle/passing shower to the areas that will see the most precipitation.  If you’re in the metro areas of Los Angeles and Ventura you will not see much precipitation from this system.  The system is the most moisture starved system we’ve seen this season and the due west to east flow will weaken the front that would move through Vandenberg Air Force Base today before even hitting the Ventura forecast areas.  You’re in what I call ‘The Screw Zone’ where you get barely anything from a ‘storm’ in our region while others get more.  This will be the scenario where you hear it is raining more elsewhere but not a drop or just sprinkles for you.  So don’t say I didn’t forecast this storm correctly when you’re getting that information now.

The system will however start impacting the San Luis Obispo / Kern /  Vandenberg Air Force Base zones this evening and tonight.  The initial front will have a quick moving area of showers through SLO/SBA County this evening into Bakersfield, with more showers hanging on overnight for the Gorman Pass and Tehachapi Mountain areas with showers near the neighboring towns between Bakersfield and Tehachapi.  The snow level will be at the Tehachapi floor tonight so expecting a dusting of snow there and on the Gorman Pass through Wednesday … Pine Mountain Club will see up to 2″ of snowfall, with a window of 1-2″ expected.  Ice will be a problem on the roadways … however low snow accumulations are expected.  If you’re a premium member click here for the snowfall/intensity graphs for this system.

Scattered showers in the OC/IE/SD forecast areas, including the Rim of the San Bernardino Mountains will begin tonight with the increased southwest flow and some light snow possible in the rim community locations.   These will be scattered with no real solid front hitting.  The southwest flow will provide the most precipitation bunched up against the southwest side of the San Bernardino Mountain rim and Redlands to Yucaipa forecast areas, maybe San Bernardino to Devore as well …

Additional showers on the backside of the system will be possible through Wednesday for the SLO/KERN/SBA County forecast regions.

Thanksgiving for the most part looks good, but a continued west to east flow could bring light showers against the south and west facing mountain slopes then … otherwise the rest of the area will remain with a clear morning leading to party/mostly cloudy afternoons for the metros with residual moisture and low-level daytime heating.

As for the Friday or Saturday system, the Omega Block forms this week and this would bring a low pressure system in from due west on the left side of the blocking pattern toward later Friday or Saturday.  Confidence back on the 22nd was 30-40%, I am now at 50%, leaning 60% in the pattern happening.  It still is a moderate confidence with low confidence timing, but I am watching that system carefully as it would not be moisture starved … and provide enough dynamics to call it a ‘storm’ should it hit us correctly.

More on this will be available as we get closer to the timing  … but confidence remains 50/50 –