Thanksgiving will feature rain for some, clouds for others, or clear skies for some, so do not just read a title and see an image, click the link or image if on social media to read the article for those details.
So far we’ve seen a weak front slide through the area this morning and no snow was recorded in Big Bear Lake, which is what was forecast to happen, especially east end. Light snow did fall across Pine Mountain Club, Gorman, and the Tehachapi forecast zones and some still is falling today, but not amounting to much, hence why I never did a winter weather advisory for snow. Ice however may be a problem with below freezing temperatures and wet roadways.
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The same upper low that brought the showers will be stuck over Nevada for the next few days. This will bring in impulses around the southwest side of it into Southern California and each impulse will have a region within the upper jet stream to cause lifting, along with positive vorticity advection. These impulses look to aim the San Diego, Orange, Inland Empire and surrounding zones more so than any other zone over the next 48 hours. Some of our models are showing an increase in these areas overnight on Thanksgiving, into Friday. Others show just San Diego seeing showers with the west to east flow through Thanksgiving. So we’re kind of at a fork in the road in terms of ‘timing’ of the rainfall. So I’ll give it my best shot.
The impulse will affect the San Diego County area on Thanksgiving. I’ve issued a Special Weather Statement as a result. Click Here To Read it.
Given the flow is around Point Conception, I’m thinking San Diego County would be the only one affected with these heavier showers moving in. It’s a classic flow around that point into San Diego while the others remain on the drier side. Overnight, offshore activity will develop for OC/SD … question on how far inland they’ll go on Friday morning remains to be seen, however if one of our models is correct (other 6 do not show this) than widespread activity would result overnight Thursday into Friday for all of SD/IE/OC and surrounding mountain regions, with a snow level down to 4,000 feet. Is the scenario possible? Sure … is it what I’m leaning toward right now? No … But it is being monitored until our only model showing it moves off it and joins the rest.
The main thing is most of the forecast area will have a calmer thanksgiving … the exception for some outdoor plans being ruined for San Diego County … The areas near the OC Foothills into most of the Inland Empire will have clouds with a chance of showers, but isolated and mainly upslope activity.
Have a fantastic Thanksgiving …