December 8, 2015 at 7:56 pm

El Nino Update: December Is The Start and Confidence Is High For Major Storms



Confidence is high that the previous December forecast I gave at the beginning of the month will come true as the jet stream is showing signs of dipping further south and the surface ridge west of us weakening.  The month is December, however I believe that the atmosphere is more November like and this means that El Nino’s rainfall will extend beyond March as a result.  Find out when the majors storm windows are …

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El Nino values have lowered to a 2.9 and this was a 3.0 the other week.  As I stated before we’ve never seen a 3.0 or higher, much less 2.6 or higher.  This could have resulted in the surface ridge due west of here continuing to maintain.  You know there is such thing as too much of a good thing right?  Life is about moderation so why not the weather?  El Nino values this high could be bad for us … however because they are lowing to the sweet spot of 1.7 and 2.3 in my studies … we will start to see the jet stream react as such.

The atmosphere is looking more like OCT/NOV than December. I’m wondering something … I’ve seen it before during some seasons … but are we a month or so behind, meaning its DEC but the atmosphere is in the state of NOVEMBER right now.
Reason I say this is because the Pacific Northwest is getting all the storms and we have that surface blocking high pressure center.  Windstorms similar to the Columbus Day Storm are aiming the Pacific Northwest soon and this is usually a OCT/NOV type deal.
If I am correct, we will start to see the storms on time, after mid-month and through Christmas … as El Nino then finally starts showing it’s face. I’m maintaining the December forecast.
Do not let your guard down because when these values lower into the sweet spot we will start to see storm after storm and these storms will not be weak.  These storms will be very powerful and flooding will be a major issue with them.  Our long range forecast model continues to show 10-15 FT of snowfall for this month in Mammoth with over 3-4″ of rainfall for Los Angeles so just above the average rainfall expected.
Our long range model also shows the snow level being at the high desert floor sometime during the second half of the month.  If this outcome is correct we’ll see low elevation snowfall events.

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