December 13, 2015 at 1:20 pm

Pacific Storm Clyde – Category Two – Impacts Today into Tonight – Geminid Meteor Shower Forecast



Pacific Storm Clyde is official and it is a category two out of the one through six scale.  Multiple alerts have gone up on the website, including our Squall Line Watch, which signals the chance that gusty winds and heavy rain will be likely along the front, with a chance of non-thunderstorm producing waterspouts land-falling as small tornadoes.  Will you see the Gemind Meteor Shower?  Read on for more details.

The front timing of impact is as followed;

San Luis Obispo – 2pm
Vandenberg AFB – 3pm
Santa Barbara / Kern – 4pm
Ventura – 5pm
Los Angeles – 6-7pm
Orange County – 7-8pm
Inland Empire – 8-9pm
San Diego County 9pm-11pm

Within the timing above the impacts will be a quick round of heavy rainfall that could produce local flooding in the area.  Wind gusts will be over 30+ at times along the front, with gusts as high as 40+ mph along the coastal areas of this watch.  A squall-line-watch means that dynamics are favorable for a cold-front containing the risk of higher wind gusts and heavy rainfall with limited to no lightning potential.

Given the low-level shear with it and surface instability, rotation along the front is possible and waterspouts land-falling as weak tornadoes is in this forecast.  Many of these spin-ups would go un-noticed.

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3-6″ of snowfall along with gusty winds will make for blowing snowfall, especially in the Gorman Pass (Grapevine) region forecast areas into the Tehachapi zones.  Some areas of the Kern/Ventura Mountains in the higher elevations may see over 6-8″ of snow.

The San Bernardino Mountains will be split in who sees what with the western range seeing much less snowfall than Big Bear Lake.   Big Bear Lake’s west end could see 5″ of snowfall with areas further east being a bit less in the 2-4″ range … still a good 3-6″ average is likely in this range.

For the Los Angeles and Riverside Mountains 1-3″ of snow is possible with it, with 4″ on the higher elevation of the Palm Springs Tramway forecast region.  Gusty winds will accompany the front.

For times, intensity, amount, and snow level, please use the snowfall charts included below for members only.
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A squall-line will impact the entire bight and coastal region of Southern California, starting in San Luis Obispo this early afternoon, spreading into the Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego zones this evening … This squall-line will have a broken type signature on radar which signals very strong winds with it.  Gusts over 40+ mph will be likely with it.  Some shear values along it suggests non-thunderstorm producing waterspouts will also be possible … so given this it isn’t a good idea to be out there when these cells pass.

In addition to the squall-line, high waves with and behind it through Monday will be likely, with 8-12 FT waves likely with it in all regions for coastal damage again … with 15-18 FT waves through the Vandenberg and San Luis Obispo Coasts …

The waves will subside below limits on Tuesday

A front will move through tonight and generate some high desert showers on the north end of it … but the main dynamics will be the wind gusts being between 30-45 mph in gusts and some areas could see them higher.  Blowing sand is possible … and this will continue through tomorrow behind the front with cold west winds.

There are certain things I’m watching and that is above the Cajon Pass for areas in Upper Hesperia, Oak Hills, and Phelan … where the tail-end of the front drops the snow-level to that level and IF there is precipitation left … light snow for a very brief moment would be possible.

Temperatures are going to plummet hard tonight with freezing temperatures in the high desert behind the front .. and temperatures in the 30s for Frost Advisory criteria for the Santa Clarita Valley/Upper Ventura Valleys, Northern San Diego Valleys, and the Inland Empire … Alerts will be issued to members this evening for those zones.

Colder nights ahead!

Interested in the Geminid Meteor Shower?  You’re in luck for the most part … the front comes in early for most and clears the area overnight so rapid clearing behind it will happen.  The exception will be for the mountain regions … stay away from those areas as cloudy conditions will persist, with light snow up in the Kern/Ventura Mountains.

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