Upslope Showers Starting Tonight, Peaking Tuesday, Ending Tuesday Night; El Nino Update



A moist northwest to westerly flow will bring up-slope shower activity to the region starting overnight tonight and going through Tuesday.  Various locations will see different things so again by micro-climate depending where you are is what you will see … if anything at all.  El Nino values went back up a bit … very odd –  Let’s begin, details by reading on.

A stronger surface low is going to develop over Las Vegas, Nevada, starting tonight and increasing on Tuesday.  A short term forecast has been issued for the SLO/SBA County regions for rainfall passing through there before the rest of the forecast area sees it.  Click Here To Read That

Given what I’m seeing, areas near the foothills will see much more rainfall than along the coast.  Again, this is upslope activity and is expected.  Some areas in the San Diego Foothill/Mountain areas will see up to two inches of rainfall while areas around Downtown San Diego sees 0.3″ and Escondido coming in at a half inch of rain while only up the interstate in areas like Rainbow will see 0.25″ … A drastic change due to the micro-climates involved.   If you are a member, you can see our rainfall alert model showing these in action.  Click Here To View The Member Section and Click On ‘Rain’. 

Now what will happen is that overnight into Tuesday morning, increasing showers (some heavy) will form in the inland LA areas, stretching into the OC/SD/IE areas and adjacent foothill zones.  This deeper-layer moisture will not arrive above 6,000 FT will not arrive until Tuesday morning for areas above that so if you’re in Big Bear you’ll notice only a short duration rainfall where’as areas below 5,000 feet will see the higher rainfall totals.   That’s just how the atmosphere works without deeper-layer moisture and it’ll be the same in all mountain ranges above 6,000 feet.

High Wind Warnings are taking care of the desert and mountain regions on the main site.  Click Here To Read That

Small scale flooding and mudslide activity will be possible for the Kern Mountain surrounding Tehachapi, the Riverside and San Diego County Mountains, and along the Ortega Highway through the Santa Ana Mountains with over an inch of rain in all areas being likely, Tehachapi having two inches.  As these same showers move off the Kern Mountains, they’ll move into the Kern Deserts as well and this will bring a rou ndof showers through to Edwards/Ridgecrest/California City on Tuesday whereas normally you wouldn’t see anything.  Thank the deeper-layer moisture for a brief time.

Wind gusts will be out there on Tuesday for ALL coastal and Inland Empire regions.  Expecting gusts of 30-40 mph out there, Ventura/Oxnard possibly clocking in at 40-45+ mph out of the west.  Member only micro-climate alerts will be issued this evening … Check your email/apps then for those.

Believe it or not, the snow level will be over 8,000 FT for the most part, surging over 10,000 FT in all zones on Tuesday.  This means that absolutely no snowfall maps/charts will be developed for this event and that all ski-resort zones will have rain when precipitation does hit.  All mountain passes will be clear.

Now for the El Nino Update.  I’ve never seen that before. An El Nino number bump up in the peak season for the number. Back up to 2.9c now … We need that to drop. Eventually it will, but till then we will continue seeing the same pattern .. again if my theory is correct from my article posted last week.  If we maintain a later season, we will be entering territory we haven’t seen in recorded history … a perfect strong El Nino value with a higher sun angle (Later Winter into Spring) and this together would increase our risk of severe thunderstorms and tornado potential due to instability …

NOTE: If you are a SCWF subscriber on a monthly basis we rolled out the season pass system so you can get rid of monthly charges to just have one season and be done with it with no obligation to renew and no reoccurring payments for our lowest price. Take advantage of premium forecasts from snowfall charts/maps, santa ana wind charts, heat/cold alert, micro-climate alerts, and much more so you stay in the know on what is coming for business or personal reasons …  Trial members, your trials will run out within this next storm pattern so if you wish to continue the member benefits, upgrade today.
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