End Month Precipitation Chances Increase Across Southern California With Cutoff Pattern



While March 2016 doesn’t seem like much, Los Angeles is 2.0″ for rainfall this month with the previous systems and averages 2.3 to 2.4″.  Can we get a half inch of rainfall before the month is over to chalk this as above average?  Find out by reading on …

An offshore Santa Ana Wind pattern will happen on Saturday … followed by a very strong onshore wind event for the mtn/des regions and even some coast/valley zones by Monday afternoon/evening (March 28th, 2016).  So we’ll get that wording out of the way for you now …

Many are asking what happened to March 2016.  SCWF says it was going to be above average in terms of precipitation yet nothing? Nothing isn’t 2.0″ of rainfall.  Nothing is 0.0″ of rainfall.  With Los Angeles only a half inch of rain amounts away from being above average we still have that chance to get it.

By the end of the month a ridge will form over the Western Canadian Coastal Zones.  This region would cutoff the jet stream west of the area and any systems coming from the north would get cutoff from the main flow of the jet and then drift into Southern California.  The question here is … will it do it before midnight on April 1st in order to count?  Our member only long range predictions through the end month range from 0.3″ to 0.8″ for Los Angeles with the end month flow pattern.  Granted it isn’t much, if it goes over the 2.4″ mark then the month will be above average.

It is Spring and that means weather modeling algorithms are at their most confused due to how erratic the jet stream is.  Spring and Fall are generally the toughest longer range forecasting periods so confidence is always lower in verification than with Winter and Summer.

April is looking like March with several storm patterns so we will continue to see that chance of storm activity… but like March and other months this season … it won’t be storm after storm.  Still, expecting an average to slightly above average April in terms of precipitation … with temperatures being slightly warmer on average.

The hottest month will be June … where records in the Southwest will be challenged for heat.

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