La Nina usually means drier than average conditions in Fall, Winter, and Spring … however as we saw the last El Nino didn’t do well in Southern California .. as expected Northern California took the rains … but a certain pattern this June and looking into July is making me think we’ll see more storms for the 2016-2017 season despite La Nina being here and other outlets are saying drier at the moment due to La Nina … but those same ones couldn’t get it right last time … so read on for details.
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Summer 2016 is shaping out to be one of the hottest summers Southern California has seen on average in many years. This is due to the ridge placement that controls the Southwest Monsoon. This large ridge is failing to pushing the moisture into Southern California and longer range predictions here at Southern California Weather Force into July seem to keep it that way .. with only a brief introduction of it through Eastern AZ and Western NM in the medium and long term.
This ridge placement was seen in only one year in the last 50 years … Summer 2004. Summer 2004 had a very similar ridge placement over the Southwestern United States. This ridge placement ultimately shifted in the Fall to produce a lot of storms in October 2004. 2004-2005 storm season had the most rain on record and the reason for that was a neutral atmosphere during that time .. similar to a weak La Nina.
La Nina usually has blocking features and if the placement of these features is correct .. it can hold an upper level low in place west of the forecast area … and pump storms right into California, including Southern California …
It is still too far out to tell … but I am using the same pattern technique as with the call for the El Nino pattern to hit mainly Northern California last year and early this year … it did … and I was right … So we will continue to monitor this pattern and update you on the latest…
If the pattern remains into July 2016 … we will have the ridge placement for a total shift from what La Nina usually should bring …
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