September Cutoff Low Season And A Look At La Nina 2016-2017



September is cutoff low season and the season generally starts as the Southwest Monsoon season ends … have a look at the rest of the month pattern and a glimpse at La Nina by reading on …

Newton is well inland as tropical remnants that hit Arizona and the moisture is extending through the rest of the Central and Northern United States to produce thunderstorm events in those area.  Here in Southern California we remain in the influence of a trough and the dry air is apparent in the water vapor loop.

Looking ahead we have continued average temperatures, even below average at times as a trough influence remains in the area through the at least the 20th.  Cutoff low season means that forecasts that far out are subject to change but as you see this loop here it does show those cutoff patterns in the jet stream … and how far south it goes will determine what we will get from it.  The Sierra Nevada may very well have their first snow with this type of pattern.  Generally our storms do not start till later in October and November but the cutoff pattern could always get surprises.

La Nina is weak at the moment but our October pattern outlook is showing that an upper level low over Alaska and Western Canada would drive colder air into the Pacific Northwest.  This colder than average outlook for Alaska means the water will be colder and thus the current would shove that south into our area.  If this is correct, temperatures offshore will be colder than average .. .a first in many years.  This would stop the surface ridge we had last season from becoming established too fast and killing most of our storm chances … Prognosis of the season to come remains good.

So for now we’ll have the cutoff season … and heatwaves will be likely by the end of September into the beginning of October …[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_facebook type=”button_count”][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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