A cutoff low pattern is incoming and this will be a tough forecast in the medium range, however the evidence does suggest that we will have a shower and thunderstorm chance in our forecast region, just about anywhere by the weekend so read on for details.

A ridge over the area now is keeping temperatures up inland and nice weather along the coast.  As this weekend approaches, a trough coming out of Western Canada would drop into the Western United States.

Vort lobes rotating within this trough will get stuck between that and a ridge to the west, in the Pacific Ocean.  This blocking pattern would keep a cutoff low meandering around Southern California for at least four days or so .. starting this weekend, May 6th.

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My various weather models for rainfall in the member section shows different scenarios … so at this point there is zero way to tell from this cutoff pattern who will see the most at this time.  One model shows all metros getting hit hard … another only San Diego.

However, there is a cutoff low blocking pattern coming and it looks pretty solid so updates will resume on it by mid-week.

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