A cutoff low pattern is incoming and this will be a tough forecast in the medium range, however the evidence does suggest that we will have a shower and thunderstorm chance in our forecast region, just about anywhere by the weekend so read on for details.
A ridge over the area now is keeping temperatures up inland and nice weather along the coast. As this weekend approaches, a trough coming out of Western Canada would drop into the Western United States.
Vort lobes rotating within this trough will get stuck between that and a ridge to the west, in the Pacific Ocean. This blocking pattern would keep a cutoff low meandering around Southern California for at least four days or so .. starting this weekend, May 6th.
My various weather models for rainfall in the member section shows different scenarios … so at this point there is zero way to tell from this cutoff pattern who will see the most at this time. One model shows all metros getting hit hard … another only San Diego.
However, there is a cutoff low blocking pattern coming and it looks pretty solid so updates will resume on it by mid-week.