Thunderstorm Watch



[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]Issued Zones:  Los Angeles County Coast/Valley/Basin/Mountains … Cajon Pass … The Inland Empire … Western San Bernardino Mountains … Orange County …

Site:  Southern California Weather Force has issued a Thunderstorm Watch effective now through Sunday … and NOTE – Read the entire forecast, it is very detailed …

Date:  9/2/17 at 6:15am PT

Forecast: Latest satellite images shows some mid-level clouds across the watch area this morning.  These will be what will be trick in the forecast.  In order for Perris and Lake Elsinore to go up on their own without the help of a gust front, we’ll need the temperature to hit 106F today. 

Given the mid-level clouds in the area this morning, we may or may not hit the convective temperature.  So again.. very tricky.  So we’ll play it on the what if it does factor for this watch just to be on the safe side. 

Models here at Southern California Weather Force do continue to show adequate moisture in the monsoonal level across all of the Inland Empire for max heating at around 1pm-4pm so this isn’t going to be a problem.  Instability is at severe levels should storms form … and convergence zones are strong, thanks in part to a strong east flow on the northern side of Tropical Storm Lidia. 

The flow today is much stronger out of the east at storm level so these will move faster than on Thursday.   Should storms form in the Inland Empire they’ll be widespread. 

Should the convective temperature NOT be met, storms would form near Crestline and move west-southwest across the Cajon Pass and into the Los Angeles Valley/Basin/Coastal areas, which are under a watch.  Storms furthermore would form over the Santa Ana Mountains and push far into the Orange County zones, including the coast of Huntington/Sunset Beach.  

Storms will also form over the fire area in Los Angeles County’s Mountains and push toward the San Fernando and Santa Clarita Valleys.  Because the fire is in the area where moisture is, pyrocumulus clouds could grow from the intense heat of the flame updraft and it could produce its own thunderstorm.

So this is what today will bring should the convective temperature be met.  Areas west of the 215 have the best chance of seeing storms should it not be met.. especially Rancho Cucamonga … I will keep this thunderstorm watch in place through Sunday as Tropical Storm Lidia moves southwest of our forecast area.  Any spiral arm-band from it with clearing skies would set up the area once again and it will be monitored …

10 mile rule:  These alerts issued on this site means that within your zone and 10 miles from you will see the event forecast for.  You may or may not see the event but it means you are in the zone or 10 miles from where someone will.

Forecaster: KM[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

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