September 4, 2017 at 11:58 am

Weak El Nino Scheduled For 2017-2018 Storm Season; What Does It Mean?


A weak El Nino is what I am going to maintain with this season for the 2017-2018 storm season here in Southern California.  What does it mean?  Read on for details.

The 2015-2016 Super El Nino had everyone up in arms, even Bill Patzert, a scientist at JPL.  He predicted we would need boats here in Southern California to travel around .. .think Houston, Texas here.  He also said he would be correct in that and that if he would be wrong pitch forks, torches, and grease and spoons would be his punishment.  Well … that never happened.  He did this for the 2004-2005 weak El Nino as well and hid for many years.  Predicting dry weather 8 years out of 10 in Southern California would certainly give you a high percentage for gusss-work and hunches but that isn’t real science.

LIKE ME ON FACEBOOK for updates!  Click Here and join thousands …

During the 2015-2016 Storm Season, while I did call it a Super El Nino, I noticed warming off the Southern California Coast that shouldn’t have been there.  This warming was blocking the storms from entering our area and shoving them to Northern California.  I dubbed this the Martin El Nino Anomaly and went with a drier than normal season while the others went wetter.  It turned out to be drier than average.   Patzert was never seen or heard of for the 2016-2017 storm season and likely won’t for this next one.  He may have ran off .. who knows .. who cares …

During the Summer 2016 I noticed the placement of the ridge from Spring to end Summer was similar to other wet seasons in the past.  I decided to go with these as a factor to a super long range forecast.  I went with wetter and no doubt others would have gone with drier due to the failure of their previous year forecast.  I maintained wetter than average and we got hit with many storms, ultimately being wetter than average, including Major Pacific Storm Lucifer.  Anyone remember that?  If you’re new to the main page and site, Lucifer was named by me.  I have been naming storm systems on my site since before the year 2000 when I had no one really reading.  I’ll do it again for the coming storm season.  Those names get released on September 15th when the monsoon season ends.

Click Here To Find Your Zone On Facebook For Updates Now and In The Future

Click Here To Find Me On TWITTER.


So what does the 2017-2018 storm season hold?  Ridge placement was similar to the year 1997 from Spring to now.  The El Nino is expected to be weak, not strong like in 1997-1998.  Given this.. I’ll maintain above average in precipitation with high fluctuations of cold shots for low elevation snowfall like the 2004-2005 storm season.  It mixed bag of events and I’m gearing to be ready for them on the main site.   Updates to this will come … but I’m going to maintain original forecast from the Summer’s first call.

Stay tuned to Southern California Weather Force for the updates …

Comments are closed.