On the Indonesian island of Bali, a volcano called Mount Agung is spewing ash 5.5 miles into the sky, causing flight cancellations and trapping thousands of tourists and locals on the island, even as the potential for a bigger eruption looms that could alter the current jet stream this season and for a few years. More on the dynamic inside slider pattern this next week as well Read on for details.
How much a volcanic eruption cools the planet depends on the amount of material it erupts, how high it reaches, and the composition of that material. Eruptions can also change global rainfall patterns.
We don’t know yet whether the ongoing eruption in Bali will pump out enough gas and ash to have a measurable impact on the climate, but we do know that the 1963 eruption of Mount Agung knocked down global temperatures between 0.1 and 0.2 degrees Celsius for a year.
The most recent volcanic eruption that pushed down the planet’s temperature was Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991. That eruption injected roughly 10 million metric tons of sulfur into the sky. The 1963 Agung eruption emitted about 6 million metric tons of sulfur.
A projection, which is based on the historical relationship between volcanic eruptions and temperature, suggests that an Agung eruption would reduce global temperatures between 0.1C to 0.2C in period from 2018 to 2020, with temperatures mostly recovering back to where they otherwise would be by 2023.
As I stated many times in the past, cooling of the planet is a natural cause done by volcanoes and their So2 properties. It’ll take a major eruption to knock global temperatures down.
Now, what about that dynamic inside slider I talked about before? Scenario 3 is still winning. This would bring a powerful round of Santa Ana Winds between December 4th and 6th of this next week. We have yet to shake the pattern for inside sliders missing us to the east and this did once happen during the 2005-2006 season so remaining confident that the pattern will change for the mid to end part of this season due to the change from winter to spring pattern as the jet stream becomes altered yet again.
So the best thing I can say right now is if you live where Santa Ana Winds usually are, prepare for them next week. Your Christmas decorations may also be ruined if they are not secure. I wouldn’t mind free decorations on my hill, carried in from the wind.
The inside slider pattern would no doubt bring some of the coldest air this season thus far in all areas, especially those not within the Santa Ana Wind zones.
Pattern is not set in stone as this is a dynamic inside slider and it still could come back west some. Any further west and the weather pattern would drastically change with it, going from dry and cold Santa Ana Winds to thunderstorms and low snow levels. It still is too far away for my taste in trying to forecast a dynamic inside slider so I’ll wait till over the weekend.