Believe it or not, my numbers on my models are now showing an even stronger Santa Ana Wind dynamic by later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing with it conditions that will strengthen the winds more than what are seeing now, finally hitting Metro San Diego County with gust values on par with 2007’s firestorm Santa Ana Winds with an Omega Ridge Pattern.
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Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse we have through a ridge in the mix. This current event is caused by a dynamic inside slider system. It is very cold … and that is the reason for the low temperatures. However, as was the cause in 2007 (minus the 100F temps) a stronger event than now was caused by a ridge developing to our north. Such a ridge will develop by Wednesday.
This ridge will develop fast on Wednesday and while the winds today will continue through then, the upper support needed for stronger events will be available. The areas seen the winds today need to prepare for even stronger winds later Wednesday and into Thursday. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s as well then so a bit warmer than this current event.
In addition to the areas seeing the winds today that will see them later Wednesday into Thursday, San Diego County has been left out for the most part. However .. it is very possible that with the easterly component, this county, including the coast … will see the strongest winds of this next event. As was in 2007, the entire area from Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego County and then Inland Empire saw strong wind gusts.
I won’t put it past the next event to put 100 mph wind gusts through the San Diego County Foothill zones in the prone Santa Ana Wind zones.
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So this your Santa Ana Wind Watch for the areas listed above. The Santa Ana Wind Warning will be in effect on Wednesday morning … but will remain with the same forecast. The fire risk will be more elevated and more widespread than the current event so a Fire Weather Warning is included in my Santa Ana Wind Forecast, as is with the current warning.
After this week there may be a weaker event early this next week … but other than that there are no additional strong Santa Ana Wind Events in the next 14 day period.