Severe Weather Statement


[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]Issued Zones:  All coastal/valley/basin areas of SLO/SBA/VT/LA/OC/IE/San Diego south and west of the local mountains …

Site:  Southern California Weather Force has issued a Severe Weather Statement effective Tuesday … Concerning areas within it for a Tornado Watch, Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and Squall-Line Warning so read the alert carefully to find your area …

Date:  1/8/18 at 2:10pm PT

Forecast: Major Pacific Storm NIKITA will impact the forecast area, the main impact across Vandenberg/SLO after midnight tonight and Los Angeles to San Diego by Tuesday morning at or before sunrise.  The dynamics for severe storms and tornadoes has increased in the statement area in some spots so pay attention to this discussion on the locations mentioned. 

Major Pacific Storm NIKITA will impact with extremely severe dynamics.  The latest short range tornado/thunderstorm model here at Southern California Weather Force in the member section clearly shows a severe thunderstorm line extending into San Luis Obispo County after midnight tonight.  Your county will need a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for damaging winds along with these storms and isolated spin-ups possible, with damage likely. 

Further south into Vandenberg Air Force Base/Lompoc I see an EF1 tornado shading on the model, which means that you now have a Tornado Watch pending from my office. 

As the early morning before sunrise time-frame happens, backing of the low level flow with instability will impact Ventura County out of the ocean.  Models here continue to show tornadoes being possible there and you have a Tornado Watch pending from my office. 

Further toward the sunrise hour or just before the line impacts Los Angeles, Orange County, and into San Diego County. Values are so high in the LA/OC areas that I may have to upgrade the storm system to category six, the highest alert in my system.  LA/OC have a tornado watch pending, with severe thunderstorm watches pending for the Santa Clarita Valley on the north end. 

Further south into San Diego one think is missing for instability purposes for thunderstorm development in the morning run, however in recent runs it is trying to show you may have a severe storm line move through on Tuesday morning.  Because of that alone I’ll pend either the Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Squall-Line Warning for you. 

Further into the Inland Empire you have left-overs from the LA/OC line of storms so I’ll pend a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for you, with weakening dynamics as storms cross the 215 near March Air Force Base and realistically it would be a thunderstorm watch for Hemet/Banning as a result. 

So, this is what I am looking at … backing is extreme along the SBA/VT/LA/OC coastal zones with this event and it looks as if there is a 100% chance tornado risk here on Tuesday morning.  The FINAL watches will be released by the later evening as I continue to monitor the system so stay tuned.

Flooding is likely in all parts of the Severe Weather Statement zone as previously stated in my Flood Watch days ago

10 mile rule:  These alerts issued on this site means that within your zone and 10 miles from you will see the event forecast for.  You may or may not see the event but it means you are in the zone or 10 miles from where someone will.

Forecaster: KM[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

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