All flood prone zones need to continue to monitor the latest forecasts I give here at Southern California Weather Force on values in my own models suggesting that confidence is high enough in the long range to warrant a return of dangerous storm conditions during the last 10 days of this month so read on for details.
Weather Event Agreement went from 20% yesterday to 50% chance of 1″ of rainfall or higher in the Los Angeles area with a 75% chance over the areas devastated by the mudslides with Major Pacific Storm Nikita on January 9th, 2018. The Weather Event Agreement is a member section product that updates daily on a longer range forecast. It takes many of my models and tweaks the numbers a bit to see how in sync they are with one another and at the moment over 15 out of 20 of my models are showing this pattern returning in the long range.
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The first system to move through the area looks like a northern slider later this next week. A northern slider is a system that impacts further north than in our region. Such a system would bring more rain to San Luis Obispo and Kern County than say Los Angeles. Systems such as that have strong onshore flow and westerly winds so gusty wind conditions in all sectors of the forecast area would follow. This will be updated on by Monday.
The next pattern is called a longwave pattern. The longwave pattern is a stuck trough pattern that rotates many individual storm systems through the area after January 21st or 22nd. This type of pattern is one that needs to be watched as what I stated above that this far out 15 out of 20 of my model algorithms shows heavy rainfall potential with it. If you are in a burn area then you need to continue to monitor your member section on my site if a full subscriber, Facebook page, or Facebook micro-climate groups.
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So that is basically what I am watching right now. It remains the same as I stated days ago at the end of Major Pacific Storm Nikita… that the pattern will become favorable again this month. Nikita was a shortwave storm that was a once hit and out… a longwave brings a number of impulses in and bears watching.
Stay tuned to Southern California Weather Force for further updates …
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