Pacific Storm OSIRIS Now Official At Category Three: Storm Aims For Martin Storm Diamond Within Martin Storm Pattern

by Weather Force Views: 12365

First the Santa Ana Winds and now Pacific Storm OSIRIS is official here at Southern California Weather Force.  After predicting the pattern for mid-February with the storm track as a dynamic cutoff, the pattern coming up this week bears the name ‘The Martin Storm Pattern of February 2018’.  This system will head for the Martin Storm Diamond, a sweet spot for thunderstorm activity.  Who will see what?  Read on for official details …

Back on January 20th I released an article of the ridge backing off west and allowing dynamic cutoff systems into the Southern California area.  This article (Click here) stated the exact pattern we are about to see for Mid-February.  This was yet another long range forecast hit, thus will bear the official name of The Martin Storm Pattern of February 2018 and will echo this across social media as where it originated from.  The system dropping down is now Pacific Storm OSIRIS.  I have given a preliminary category number of three on my one through six scale.  The lack of low level wind gusts and a disorganized frontal zone is what makes this a lower number… however… the value of three is elevated because of the better risk of thunderstorms in the area.

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First I’ll talk about the Santa Ana Winds.  Santa Ana Wind alerts were sent out the other day and the winds are expected to develop this evening and tonight and last until at least noon on Sunday.  This will be a quick hitting .. .but potent round.  Nominal Santa Ana Wind prone zone (areas that usually get them) will be around 30-50 mph in wind gusts with higher in the best prone canyon areas.  Wind gust model will be activated for members in the SCWF Member Section today.

Now about Pacific Storm OSIRIS.  The system is expected to be what I call a dynamic snap cutoff low.  It’ll dive very quickly along the California coast and the ridge north of it will cut it off from the main jet stream pattern after Monday.  This will allow it to snap back west some and then meander out there… slowly moving back east through the week.  Depending on how far west and south it snaps will depend on who sees what.  A snap back west and coming back east on the current trajectory would put the most rainfall in LA/OC/IE/and especially the San Diego and Imperial County areas.  Those of you in Imperial County that barely get a thing?  This is your system pattern that gives you more rainfall than normal.  The cutoff will act to draw sub-tropical moisture upwards.

Now… because of the snap-back track … it is entirely possible snow-levels could be higher than normal with the system.  West systems will draw southerly flow and the advection of such moisture and air will push the snow levels up to near 7,000 FT for most of the system… with some indications of the core of it at 6,000 to 6,500 FT … and yes it is being monitored carefully on what type of alerts I will issue to members in the micro-climate alerts offered.

Being it is a cutoff system… jet stream winds will not be a problem so I’m not thinking it’ll have much wind with it anywhere.

Now the fun part will be thunderstorms … if you enjoy them.  The Martin Storm Diamond, named after me; is a diamond-shaped zone in-which if a storm system’s center cross into it… it’ll bring the needed upper dynamics (sweet spot) for widespread thunderstorm activity.  Given what I see this next week it looks like that should it remain on the track… a number of thunderstorms will be noted.

First hint of rain will be on Monday.. with somewhat of a break after that as it snaps back far from us … with increased activity coming back Wed into Thursday … Further details will be given next week …

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This is the end of the public article …

SCWF Micro-Climate Alert Changes Effective Immediately – 2018+  Read what it means as there are slight changes .. but won’t affect these types of articles.
 
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This is now members only for micro-climate articles and subscriptions can be looked into on the following link – http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherforce.com/system-sign-up/
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