This is a members only report and these reports are given ahead of time to members that dives into what I am currently thinking and do not want to go completely public yet… so think of it as a backstage pass scenario. Let’s get on with it.
Previous storm system that just went by went flawlessly on the forecast. I couldn’t ask for a better forecast with a tough type of pattern. There was lightning in the center of my shaded zones and furthermore it allowed me to focus on predicting thunderstorm zones better in my model. So with that being said I will go into Friday first and then the weekend … then next week just for you.
On Friday, expecting yet another frontal zone to move into the region. This frontal zone will move through SLO/Vandenberg by the morning, Ventura by the evening, Los Angeles early night, and the SD/IE zones during the later night. Here is not to say that the zones in the IE/OC/LA/VT/SBA zones won’t see some showers well ahead of the front because you will, especially 6 hours before when you get some upslope activity, much like the front on Wednesday that just went through. It rained hours before the initial front come in for those areas.
Heavy rainfall is expected along the front at the times listed above. As you can see from the member section flood risk chart, the VT/LA/OC and Northeast to Northern Inland Empire zones are in a risk area. It is low with some moderate… but the potential is there for some flooding on top of what feel with our previous front. Flood watches will go out as a result.
Snow will be likely yet again with another few inches possible over 6,000 FT in the local mountains, with snow possible through the 4,000 FT level in the Kern County Mountain areas. Snow model will be updated again on Friday morning when advisories will go out.
Expectations in thunderstorms with this next system is low, almost nil in fact. Values in my model are 0% at the moment due to the lack of some instability parameters. So.. thunderstorms are not a focus with the front.
Moving onto the weekend… Wondering about NASCAR weekend? Well Friday has increasing showers for qualifying rounds but it could pull it off. Saturday behind the front could have isolated upslope showers in the track vicinity and Sunday looks good for the main race… about what I said a few days back.
A larger system is still trying to show up on my longer range numbers for next week around Wednesday through 21st. This type of system is called a southwest glancing blow system where a powerful upper level low moves northeast into Northern California and drags a plume of tropical moisture from the southwest to northeast across our area. This would bring a good round of heavy precipitation with it and snow levels over 7,000 FT. The glancing blow systems favor the Thomas Fire zones and this will need to be further monitored so you have your ‘watch’ right now on it. This system is the system that will try to end the Martin Weather Pattern of March 2018.
Because it is a southwest to northeast system reaching deep into the tropics… this could favor Downtown San Diego as well with a direct line as the plume moves eastward.
Stay tuned to your member section by clicking here – http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherforce.com/scwf-members-section/