El Nino is about to cross the weak El Nino threshold (+0.5) and will do so in July as it continues to climb at a steady but semi-rapid pace. July’s monsoonal switch is looking on-time and very interesting so far so read on for the details.
Just two weeks ago the ENSO values crossed from negative into neutral at 0.0. Last week it rapidly hit +0.2. This week’s values are now at +0.4, just a point away from the start of the weak El Nino category. This pace is following (and maybe slightly exceeding) that of the SCWF (Figure A) model projection while leaving NOAA as the less accurate trend so far. At this rate it may even exceed the SCWF projection and that is being monitored.
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There is a chance it could slow down a bit and become a bit more steady with a slight rise through July.. which again would match the SCWF Projection. Projections are that the weak El Nino forms by July with moderate by the Fall and maintaining an upper moderate deep into the Winter. This would be a good thing for us since the moderate El Nino seasons have indeed producted on average better rainfall for here in Southern California.
A developing El Nino summer usually means the four corners ridge would establish in July, which is the original SCWF projection. One thing I am noting is the amount of hurricanes that will form south of here next month. These hurricanes will in fact cause a ‘kink’ in the ‘shape’ of the upper ridge and give us more easterly waves, possibly even pushing the ridge toward Salt Lake City and Northern Nevada. This push would be needed to send monsoonal moisture well through Los Angeles and on the way to areas like Vandenberg and San Luis Obispo as well. It would exceed moisture levels and make it extremely humid and miserable next month. This projection is July 4th onward still.
July so far is looking like above average monsoonal flows with above average heat… a complete opposite of May and June. We have lost the So2 factor from the Hawaiian volcano so those of you that are new to Southern California will finally feel it like the Southern USA States.. hot/humid at times. Getting AC or it tuned now would be a good option.
Surf will be up on south facing beaches in July because of the favorable crossing of the major hurricanes.
I’ll be on hand to issue thunderstorm, severe thunderstorm, and if needed .. tornado watches … including flood products throughout the month. The service is paid for by people like yourself through the Summer season.
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