Strong Inland Heatwave Starts Today; El Nino Update And A Small Hint Of August


The inland heatwave I wrote about a week ago starts today.  First, comments on here about ‘updates’ etc go ignored because I only update when the forecast changes.  If I do not update something then the forecast remains the same.  Because I am extremely good in longer range that may seem like I never said a forecast before-hand in the first place.  Always wait for updates or see the latest one, even if a week before.  Temperature profiles are slightly weaker than the one earlier this month, however it will still be hot out there with SCWF Official Heat Warnings in place for most of this week.  A look at the El Nino update and even a hint at August can be read by reading on.

Latest values show Riverside at 112 at the hottest toward the airport with this heatwave this week, with temperatures over 100 through Friday.

Last time we had a weak offshore flow, which promoted compressional warming.  This time we have a slight onshore flow at times so while it will be hot.. I still think mother nature’s air conditioning will have some affect on the temperatures, the the peak hours being 2pm-4pm and onshore flow kicking up after that for the evening drop in temperatures, with inland 70s overnight.

The hottest temperatures will be in the low deserts where 120F is very possible in spots of Imperial/Riverside/San Bernardino County.

Toward the weekend we will start to get the ridge placing back into a position to bring the southeast flow back.  This could deepen the monsoon moisture fields and it’ll further be monitored as it is too far away right now.

El Nino values remain +0.4, about the forecast I have it.  Next update in a week or two should bump that to +0.5 or even +0.6.  This is a weak El Nino variety, which my forecast remains a weak/moderate El Nino season coming up.

August is the last month of meteorological Summer, which is June 1st through August 31st.  September 1st starts meteorological Fall.  At the current time I am not seeing a fully warm month like we have had so far in July.  I’m seeing some large swings from cooler than normal and warmer than normal during the month of August.  Right now we are average for the season in terms of average temperatures, despite what you think of July.  June was way cooler, which impacts the mathematical average values to be lower.  August being cooler and warmer will end us at an average or slightly below average in temperature Summer.  Last year was hot for June/July/August and thus was way hotter prolong than this year.

Because of the cooler parts of August, this means that a trough at times could suck up strong hurricanes toward California and thus the associated moisture and upper dynamics would make it overhead.  August could get interesting at times.

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