Earthquake Watch: California Earthquake Watch Continues Due To Continued Elevated Fault Stress


On August 10th, 2018 an Earthquake Watch was issued here at Southern California Weather Force that would go for 10 days.  A 4.4-magnitude shaker in Aguanga Southern California was felt on the 14th verifying the watch.  An 8.2-magnitude hit Fiji and due to the continued unrest the watch remains.

The official Earthquake Watch wording stated as followed;

We have been quiet for several months across the state.  We haven’t seen many 4+ magnitude quakes for awhile and we should be seeing more of those soon.  The general trend over the last several days has been on the up and we have been getting a swarm in the Mammoth Mountain area as well.  Such a swarm is indicating that state-wide stress levels within the mantle/crust boundary are elevated.

The watch zone is for the entire state and into some of Baja, Mexico as well.

An Earthquake Watch is a product issued only here at the Southern California Weather Force when stress model shows a trend upwards at a steep angle along with high values being detected.  We are at a very high peak right now.

This watch will go through the next 10 days for a magnitude 4 or higher quake.

Prediction success rate is about 95% at the current time, getting an offshore 5 mag and Trabuco Canyon 4.0 at the beginning of this year.

Earthquakes like the 8.2-magnitude in Fiji can ring the planet like a bell and disturb any fault-zones.  However the ones most disturbed would be nearby and as per my ‘forecast’ in the short term in yesterday article (click here) it stated that deep quakes like this means that the crust/mantle boundary has been hit by an updraft of hot rock within the mantle. These up and downdrafts are what is responsible for most of the deep earth activity. A deep quake can transfer to a shallow quake near the area so Indonesia, PNG, to New Zealand should be on high alert for increased activity as a result.  Indonesia has been having strong earthquakes at a shallow level since then so my theory is indeed having merit.

The fault-stress model has been showing a decreasing trend for a few days now, however it remains elevated.  The 10-day period will be up by Monday evening.  If the trend model does keep moving downward through then.. then the watch will expire.  The fault-stress model is a product only viewable on the Southern California Weather Force website member section and is a free to view product right now.  When the trend of stress related to outside disturbances moves upwards then an Earthquake Watch is issued.  No larger quakes have ever hit when the fault-stress model shows low to no risk, which on itself is interesting.

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