August 22, 2018 at 5:05 pm

Rare End August Below Normal Temperatures Across Southern California; A Look At September


We’re losing much of the humidity and therefore overnight and daytime temperatures are on the decline as we head toward the end of the month.  What does September hold?  Read on for details.

The August 2018 long range forecast I put out has been correct so far.  For the majority of the month we have been seeing more monsoonal activity than July in all areas east of the LA/OC areas into the neighboring mountain and desert regions.  Furthermore the temperature and humidity has been up in the metro areas.  Even the last sentence in the August 2018 forecast article (click here) stated that to put into a forecast verification but as a ‘whole’ calculation of the landmass of Southern California we will end August at slightly below average, which would, if correct, make the total value of the region slightly cooler than normal of a Summer.

And so this will be.  My medium range numbers indicate less humidity for the region along with below average temperatures, just as the last paragraph of my August 2018 forecast shows. This is very rare because my birthday is on August 29th and usually we are in the 100s in the Inland Valley areas.. but not this time.

At the moment we are tipping into near a weak El Nino.  Meteorological Fall starts on September 1st.  That is my official start of the fall season as it pertains to weather patterns and not astronomy.  The official Pacific Storm Season of 2018-2019 starts on September 15th.  The storm names will come back this year and yes I’ve issued names and categories for Pacific Storms hitting our region since before the year 2000 so this will never go away.  If you are new then you’ll come to enjoy my system of naming and categorizing them.

September is looking rather interesting at the moment.  With the coming El Nino we start to see a faster monsoonal ridge break-down over the month of September and a trough developing well offshore of California.  Based upon this pattern any strong hurricane south of here would have the moisture scooped up and run into the California region.  There is very good chance at seeing good tropical moisture producing heavy rainfall this next month in our forecast region.

So this is something to look forward to.  The other thing to look forward to is how this next El Nino will behave.  The eastern-based El Ninos generally are better for us.  However this is a west-central based El Nino trying to show up and these usually are not that good on average for rainfall in Southern California.  However, the years such as the great 2009-2010 storm season had the same El Nino and this broke the rules, as did the 2015-2016 Super El Nino that was opposite of expected by many.  So we are still a bit a way for my last forecast, but Fall 2018 does start on September 1st.

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